BG....warned that first-quarter results would be near break-even, missing Wall Street estimates. Can’t figure out when to short it.....
ism services and factory orders..TOMORROW....looks like it helps the market..
XOM looks toppy...if XOM and ((USO...(flat to up))).... up Wed..I’m shorting XOM.......
If your wondering...why am I pencil pushing percentages....go read EXBD blog... and the two above it... for explanation...
Z
Z
Z
APRIL 2, 2007
CTSH entry 83/84..ap2 07/08....2.15/2.85 06/1.55 eps trending higher....
but I suspect, we get a deadcat bounce at 83/84
and then test (16%...= percentage of last correction.)..=....$80 after deadcat bounce... ...= 16% of 95.5.(MAR HI)....= $80...
but might not see $80...50/50...(because the steepness of the 50 day in the 2 mo’s chart, looks like it prevents $80 price from happening....
so overall ....83/84...i give 80/20...as entry price....
April 8, 2007
Here’s a follow up chart ..to CTSH....CTSH finding strong support at 84.8.....Which by the way...matches the late JAN..gap up...So...I can find compelling arguments for buying CTSH...anytime it dips below $85.5....
DE ...looks like a buy between 99/102...still away to go....103.9, currently...
Possible swing trade CAL AMR.....oil down tomorrow?....helps Airlines....maybe housing....
Wed oil supply report is bullish..so oil goes up Wed....or Thursday...
The estimates are very high on gasoline use and jet fuel use...
so estimates, coming in lower.... could hurt oil prices...If oil is down on Wed ..oil will surely be up on ..Thurs...
FFIV CAME TO LIFE.....GO TO FFIV POST.....I HAVE updated POST...TO APRIL 2ND.. entry price......80/20 OR 90/10....
Jake...today REALLY isn’t my day....I didn’t even know there was an XME.....I just can’t see steel getting any higher....
http://mythoblogical.blogspot.com/
$59.3=80/20....
61.1= 100 to 1 in my favor a short works at $61.1....
corrects down 13%....which equals corrects up 18%.....
Sometimes I have to use how far down, did it go...and apply that percentage to the upside figures....long story....
50.3 (mar 5 low)...times 18% = 59.3
51.8 (mar 14 low)...times 18% = 61.1...
one of the two...numbers should be correct to within 6 cents....we’ll see....
These stupid little pencil pushing exercises...AS TK calls it....
( In my experience, I’ve watched many a stock price come to within 6 cents of these types of calculations, so I no longer dismiss, them....They mean something...I just don’t know what...exactly...(z-spooky).....
Z
Z
Z
MARCH 29, 2007
I spend a lot of time answering email in an informal way....That’s why on my Blog, you will not see everything capitalized, as ....well if you answered as many emails a day ....as I do,.... you would want to skip any...extra keystrokes too....162 pages of it,...,in one month....
I was ask about airlines, again......It seems airlines are back in play,,,... this time the buy signal is the 200 day at......so far none of us gets airlines...perfectly...
AMR and CAL resting on their 200 days....(go to ten charts at a time stockchats...then click on AMR chart,,,...stockcharts takes you to big chart...)...
I give 80/20 buys to both...I don’t think they slip under the 200 day...
z-CAL chart link here...
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?CAL
DOWNSIDE....not much...if they do slip under the 200 day, it will only be a buck or buck fifity....so you will still be in profit channel....
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
30/50 day list ap1 07 .Here’s all the ones I could find.....This is the first time I thought to put them in a group by themselves....I wish I had done it, a long time ago...
PCAR TXN GGP MGM CI CVH HNT HUM MHS $EPX ECA OIH MIL D NRG TIE RIO PCU PAAS CY TSL ASTI ZOLT FSLR FPL WFR GSS AA AL FCX NRP BHP X STQ PVF MT PKX AKS $PVF ZEUS CRS CLF ATI ADM BG AVR COG NKE GT GR PCAR ITRI LDG BID JBX KR FD UNP ALEX TK TDW TEVA HIG AOC BMET ZMH SYK KCI ACL ABT GSK GILD IVGN ITW DD ETN CRR MLM
31 comments:
Z-stock thanks for your evaluation.
For now on I will list the stocks that follow the 50-30 degree rule.
Should I add comments or will you do it?
RSH
On Fast Money Friday, the Wolf said the stock is going higher because not a lot of analyst came out with buys and its trending higher.
Assuming airlines go up as crude oil goes down. On Fast Money the Maybach man (Bollinger) said he is long gold and short crude oil as of Friday.
Z-stock
Do you think stocks like ECA, OIH, PHX and there are many more where they are trading way above the 20MA and 50MA and have upward 30 degree slopes, will pullback to either the 20MA or 50MA?
In those case should we short those stock or wait for it to come back down and buy it?
Doc..nova
I’m wondering if one month from now these are our future 30/50 day...
so I added ... eca oih and ...what’s phx..well no matter...
I’m adding a new idea.(eca oih)....to the old one...to see where the idea goes....
Zz
Also AVR and LRCX...show quite graphically ...how bad the buy / sell signal can go...2 out of 100....I can live with that...
Doc 2000
I understand your point on shorting them. eca... oih.....
On eca and oih....you would think, they have to pull back to the 20 or 50 day..eventually, ...because that’s the ..next...entry point...so...this in fact could be a newly discovered signal...We’ll just have to watch and see....
Doc..
Coincidence...= luck...= favors the prepared....
Go look at the post XLE 5 day pattern...ECA AND OIH should be up on MON and Down on Tues...In fact, when the pattern is broken, that’s when XLE rally’s or breaks down....So ...XLE down on Monday,(breaks the 5 day..pattern)...= signal ...= ..short sell on the XLE sector...
zz...
Z-stock,
Are you long anything?
Are you short CHAP or any steel companies?
Z-stock
Getting killed on TRID. It's down below $20.
Z-stock, I read your discouraged daytrading comment on beanie's blog...I am sure you have discovered the 'dummy' daytrading crew over at:
http://www.maoxian.com
http://traderx.blogspot.com
two varieties of 'dummy' day trading styles...which are detailed and specific and which I am also learning. I found your blog due to the options thing.
Thanks.
doc..I think I have to rethink retail...(retail tech)...TRID and TXN are (retail tech).....
I’ll have to stay away from them, ....if the RSI is above 35.....
retail stocks..., outlook... longterm...is supposed to be gloomy..I don’t know why......but AOL analyst I follow...on PBR......said so...so I should be paying... more attention to the warning....from here on out....I'll start posting downside info ...on (retail tech stocks)...
i post at beannies...every... morning....http://beanie11111.blogspot.com/
post there for quicker response....
I checked out those sites.....A....non....
http://www.maoxian.com
http://traderx.blogspot.com
thanks....I’ll be reading them a lot...I’m sure....
I have the worst.... daytrading skills...I lost on everything.....now it’s all back into triple digit profit.....I’m going to .......%#$@#%#$^%
z..my..my..my..
You posted that comment on Beanie board. What's that mean?
I bought BOT calls (out of the money) ..FRI... ..thinking it’s going to gap up $15....MON>>>>merger news..bidding war...when that didn’t happen,
....I closed the position, losing a little, but missing the BOT...rally....That call went to UP 75%..profit....an hour later....
zee, FFIV has only 2.5 points left to the 200dma, in its current downtrend, don't you think it will hit 62.5 before rising again? i mean today it fell in higher volume, it does look oversold but the vol is still increasing that is troubling to me.
Z-stock: this is the detailed focus for his day trade lessons to review:
http://maoxian.com/archive/category/trading-for-dummies/
There is more in other places on his blog.
Thanks
ALOK
I wouldn't think of entering FFIV, before the 200 day..test.......that would be plain ...bad...
My entry price 62.4 / 62.8 ..'bout the same as yours....
the exit price is going to be decently up there...for some nice profit and gain...
Z-stock
Ouch, 75% from BOT. Well, I guess your prediction on ICE finally worked. It's almost @128 now.
I hope you had a position there. I remember you thought it wouldn't go below the chart. You were right on that!!
Thanks anon...I truly need to find some basic ground rules ...when prices are moving, so quickly..
zzz
Z-stock,
Check out GSOL (bullish candle),
EDU (50, 30 degree), EXLS (2 month chart shows under $20 out of chart), NHLX (break out), FFIV (below $64 out of my 2 month chart), FMCN (touched 50MA), FSLR (touched 20MA), STEC (bullish candle).
Please evaluate my stocks and see which you think has 80/20 chance to succeed.
dr, you know what, I had GSOL on my radar too. i wanted to tell you that its as good a bet as we can get in these mkts. get in quick and get out quick :), I took ZVUE instead. what do you know GSOL went higher and ZVUE went lower lol.
zee if the mkts weaken tomorrow some shorts LAMR and ATI. tell me what you think. i'll post this on beanies too
Alok,
Yeah, I like GSOL a lot due to its very low price and looks like it built up a good base.
Did you notice some of the beaten up china stocks are bottoming and moving higer. Two examples are Grrf and JST. CTSH doesn't count cause it was at all time high and dropped. What I'm referring to is beaten up china stocks.
Alok,
I know you are a regular at Beanie's blog and remember Beanie mentioned XNN a long time ago. Check it out because its touching near 200MA. Stocks that did that and bounced include FORG and LMRA which touched its 200MA and bounced nicely off of it.
Seems like everyone has NIHD listed in their blogs today. Might be a big mover this week.
Dr - CTSH is in indian company :), one of the strongest ADR's.
Chinese plays will be companys like XING, CHINA, SHI, SNP, PTR, SINA, TSM, LFC, XFML (new ipo)
XNN - might get a small bounce its still in a downtrend (im not good at picking bottoms), so you can play for a quick profit, then i would advice that you take 50-75% profits and let the rest ride.
Thanks for NIHD, it looks good, we should have been in it today.
.... i just got back.....I’m not going to be much help....on the under $10 stocks
ATI = XME...+ all steel in general....stay long steel ...until XME...hits one of two target prices...(59.3../..61.1..) STQ..retest of 508...(i think...hi oil prices will get them....and down they will come 5% in one day)....maybe thurs, fri...
Looks like CTSH, BIDU,FFIV....bottom at the same time....just a thought..
zz
Alok
Thanks for correcting me. I guess it does hold up then. Observe a lot of China stock most are basing near lows. They are ready for a move higher.
zee and nova, chinese and indian stocks might have bottomed because their mkts have already had their 15-20% correction. i can give you the exact numbers tomorrow, right now i gotta learn how to day trade. listening to some material. but the US mkt hasn't fallen as much. one of the reasons the US mkts didn't fall as much might be because it did rise as much in the first place. however we have to be cautious. don't know how much longer this bull run will last. thats when tim knight will come in handy :) right now i think he is going to get stopped out in more than half his holdings, what i love about his portfolio is that he has such tight stops, he wont loose much.
What if ATI is cup plus handle?....then i’m looking at $113..=..$95 (MAR LO) ..times 19%....= 90/10 short works at this price....
or it’a a failed cup....and short ATI..now,...two entry prices...$113... is a sure thing....but i don’t know if ATI, even gets that high...
ATI corrects down to the 50 day...= 102...eventually has to test 50 day
If I reach out to the worst case scenario, on shorting ATI....I can imagine...this.""
ATI ...EPS TRENDING HIGHER 25%....target price $121...($96...(feb low).. times 25%)...= $121...
coincidentally...50 day = 102..(has to test 50 day)....times 19%..(current price channel percentage)....= $121.....spooky....I might be within 6 cents....
Market closed fri???... five-day holiday closure in Hong Kong beginning Thursday.
zee i need your help. I'm in LTS, its not been moving in either direction, can you have a look at it and say something about it. its formed a perfect triangle, unfortunatly the triangle has gone all the way to the TIP which is not normally a good thing. the only problem is that from here its going to make a big move, i just cant figure out in which direction, will appreciate your feedback.
Alok and Z-stock
Check out EXLS. It looks like it bottomed short term and if India market is good tonight it might move higher.
I found some really good near bottom picks for tomorrow, HNSN, VPRT, SIMO (this moved up a bit, but is being depressed quite a bit)
drnova the indian mkt should go up in reaction to the US mkts.
EXLS should take out 21 tomorrow hopefully to reverse the trend.
other small stocks that look like they might be nearing bottom (they haven't prooved that they've bottomed yet) are IVAN, DSTI, TGEN (LOL YEAH I LIKE IT NOW after todays decline)
ALOK....THESE 3...ARE QUITE OBVIOUS...
DR NOVA CAN GIVE YOU a highly qualified opinion as well....as he took the crash course in 30/50 day,,...buy signal...
HNSN 16/17.2XX = BUY.....
IVAN 1.6/1.8 = BUY....
SIMO 19.XX / 21.8= BUY
z-al,right..hot stuff...thanx...alok
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