april 29 ..i added ITG earnings call play.
april 27 and 28 2007 ....I added option plays on Oih and AKAM, as well as downside risks. (4/28)
ITG , dealer broker, sector, due to report May 3. I can’t find out if the earnings report is am or after market. Earnings estimate are on fire...06/07...[jn17...1.91 / 2.29]...07/08...[mr27 2.42/2.86] . Here’s the thing. I am going to buy the June 40 call, ahead of the earnings report, and hope for a gap up. I can pick up the June 40 call for a measly, 1.10/1.25. If the earnings do cause ITG to gap up, my June 40 call becomes worth about $400. That’s easily triple the investment. Downside, is that ITG misses the earnings estimate and gets punished 2 or 3%, in which case, I’ll have to buy the June 35 call,(approx. 2.10/3.00) when ITG’s RSI is around 25/30. and then try to close all positions at breakeven.
Here's UAUA...united airlines, multi billion dollar company, or some such, the people fly the skies and make loads of money...very strong company.Uaua. Mr25 07/08.... 4.41/5.47 38.7*
hey doc, i have yahoo, IM.
here's a chart of UAUA.....i think i'm very close to the right entry price....I'm buying the uaua..MAY 30 Call....at 33.96. the contract was 4.40/4.60, with 4.50, low for the day.
I’m not worried at all at how much i have to pay for the UAUA may 30 call, because i can sell it for at least $700, because uaua has to test $37, it’s gap down price. All good companies, test their gaps. at this uaua current price i have 80/20 odds in my favor, with very little downside risk, if any.
if your attempting to buy options. The best one is the akam MAY 40 call, the low for that call today was 5.10 when akam was at 33.96. and for goodness sakes, get at least $700 when you go to sell. this trade has become 80/20, or 90/10, at these lower prices , My previous post, on AKAM, certainly left out downside analysis. I'll try to add downside risk to all future posts.
I’m expecting OIH to correct at least $17 in the next coming weeks. The best option to play is the OIH june 170 PUT , 11.70. I might be able to get it for 9.70/10.70. if oih goes up a little more. The other option is the June 155 put at 3.70. I might be able to get it for 2.90/3.40, if the Oih goes up a little more.
when the OIH pulls back, the june 170 put , has the potential of going up to $2500/2700. the june 155 put , up a possible $1200. the risk of losing money on the option contract, when OIH is at these levels is probably 15%, or much much less.
zee
ITG , dealer broker, sector, due to report May 3. I can’t find out if the earnings report is am or after market. Earnings estimate are on fire...06/07...[jn17...1.91 / 2.29]...07/08...[mr27 2.42/2.86] . Here’s the thing. I am going to buy the June 40 call, ahead of the earnings report, and hope for a gap up. I can pick up the June 40 call for a measly, 1.10/1.25. If the earnings do cause ITG to gap up, my June 40 call becomes worth about $400. That’s easily triple the investment. Downside, is that ITG misses the earnings estimate and gets punished 2 or 3%, in which case, I’ll have to buy the June 35 call,(approx. 2.10/3.00) when ITG’s RSI is around 25/30. and then try to close all positions at breakeven.
Here's UAUA...united airlines, multi billion dollar company, or some such, the people fly the skies and make loads of money...very strong company.Uaua. Mr25 07/08.... 4.41/5.47 38.7*
hey doc, i have yahoo, IM.
here's a chart of UAUA.....i think i'm very close to the right entry price....I'm buying the uaua..MAY 30 Call....at 33.96. the contract was 4.40/4.60, with 4.50, low for the day.
I’m not worried at all at how much i have to pay for the UAUA may 30 call, because i can sell it for at least $700, because uaua has to test $37, it’s gap down price. All good companies, test their gaps. at this uaua current price i have 80/20 odds in my favor, with very little downside risk, if any.
if your attempting to buy options. The best one is the akam MAY 40 call, the low for that call today was 5.10 when akam was at 33.96. and for goodness sakes, get at least $700 when you go to sell. this trade has become 80/20, or 90/10, at these lower prices , My previous post, on AKAM, certainly left out downside analysis. I'll try to add downside risk to all future posts.
I’m expecting OIH to correct at least $17 in the next coming weeks. The best option to play is the OIH june 170 PUT , 11.70. I might be able to get it for 9.70/10.70. if oih goes up a little more. The other option is the June 155 put at 3.70. I might be able to get it for 2.90/3.40, if the Oih goes up a little more.
when the OIH pulls back, the june 170 put , has the potential of going up to $2500/2700. the june 155 put , up a possible $1200. the risk of losing money on the option contract, when OIH is at these levels is probably 15%, or much much less.
zee
17 comments:
So what bottom would you predict? I bought a small position at 47 actually but will probably get more
Jet
amzn looks like a little stalling action today, I think a turn down here is likely, how far I don't know but we'll see some downside i believe. you do a great job picking up on some subtle, yet important analysis.
nice charts Z but i have to disagree on the diamonds chart. I think that thing is just starting a new leg up. seems like the macd just crossed trigger line, stochs just went oversold(rally) and histogram just broke zero upside. I firmly believe the market is due for a pullback, but looking at that chart does'nt seem like it to me. whats your thoughts on this?
great charts!
Plunger ,i’ll have my answer to the market top question , either Tuesday or wed.xle,(IYE), should redistribute, in the next two or three days. If the market follows or leads the downward, price pressures, then the the xle and dia connection proved right. If the two indexes go separate ways , xle down and dia up, then i will look at XLF and $XBD, as potential indicaters. How’s that sound?
Plunger, i can’t beleive i made profit on my amzn short. I’m glad i at least tried.
Zee.
Jet, on your calculater..enter 56.25....then hit the (minus key)...then enter 20...now hit the (percent key)...that’s your entry price for AKAM.. akam met .entry price , met today.( exit price akam, is $47, or $48, (dec 2007 exit price akam is probably new yearly high)
Zee
Alok, the reason AKAM , is giving me such a hard time, is it’s in the housing sector. I’m kidding, data storoge, (might as well be housing, or mortgage lending)..data storage is a dead sector. We’ll have to buy shorts, from now on, not longs...or at least BUY at lower lows.
zee
one quarter billion dollars came into AKAM may 45 call 1.60 thru 1.70, hope you were in too.
Cramer says:
U.S. Global Investors (GROW) "Don'tBuyDon'tBuy. ... Cramer prefers Goldman Sachs (GS), which he owns for his Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust. He thinks it's headed to 325 a share.
Cramer got burned on NYX.
z
where are you?
hello
Only 15 trading days left for the AKAM 45 call. Last Friday, the low was $1.60.
for everyday AKAM stays under $46/47, that may 45 call, is going to have time pressure on it.
There’s more of a chance the option goes to 1.15/1.20, before the option goes to 1.90/2.15.
I can hope AKAM reaches $48, before May 18, then everything will work like clockwork.
The may 45 calls go to $3.00, if akam goes to $48. the may 45 call is more like poker, than sound investing.
Sound investing, will be to buy the may40 call, which has very little downside risk
zee
Z, ITG should report pre-market. According to:
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/i/itg.html
hey johnny, you’re right
i confirmed at msn..zee
ITG.....5/3/07 Q1 2007 Investment Technology Group Earnings Release Before Market Opens
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/market/earncalendar/
plunger..
DIA can still get above overbought line at 132. Next technical is 133.40, for DIA top...in which case, I’m also JUST A TAD low (1 or 2%)..on OIH and IYE, as their top. I’D SAY I’M within 3%, OR..2%..overall..Z
Z,
Even if ITG jumps, would the June options go up that much? Usually, option premiums drop after earning announcements.
johnny, option price is based on the stock price,. The option price has nothing to do with earnings. ITG gaps up to $45 and the JUNE 40 call is worth $500 plus another 50 to $80 premium, so I can sell it for $550../..$580 ITG at $45. that's a good return on a $110 investment.
zee
cramer and his GROW, i think he should just eat CROW from now.
In terms of the airlines I'm still going with Delta. There is a reason why UAUA has gone down lately. Delta is going to be the airline stock over the next year.
I guess it’s tougher than I thought, to get someone to agree with me about UAUA. I know for a fact, that UAUA will close the gap, at $37. I also know UAUA has plenty of time left on the option, to do this in the required amount of time. I can pick up the UAUA may 30 call for 4.20/4.30 and sell when UAUA closes the gap at $37. Making the option worth $700. The option is worth $700 and doesn’t matter how much I spend buying the option, so far as I spend less than $700.
zee
I'm not doubting you that UAUA may close the gap, but for me it is too risky. United's earnings report left a lot to be desired. Of all the network airlines, they are going to be hurt the most by any negative changes in the economy, oil, or geopolitics. Delta having the lowest CASM of the network carriers gives it a safety net United does not have.
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