This is about my fifth try at explaining percent price channel...met.........
the hypothesis...is ....past price performance...can be applied to future price performance...by a series of percentage...moves that happened in the past....
and apply those percentage moves....to the current situation......as of today..the....hypothesis....has not been disproved....
in fact...in some cases...it’s allowed me to come within 3 cents of the true low....(coincidence?????....)
Everybody is going to enter CME at the $514/..$515...200 day...buy signal....so i won’t even go into that scenario.....the real scenario...that has me intrigued....is $484....CME has a 60/40...chance to reach $484....
I’m putting up the APRIL 2005 chart.....this is where the story begins.....In APRIL of 2005....CME crossed below it’s 200 day...for the first time ever....The APRIL...2005...chart is going to help me determine...what percent...did CME...go below the 200 day...
HERE”S the chart.... You see the yellow ...brownish line...that's the 200 day...
CME spent 7 days below 200 day....the 200 day in this chart is the brown line......during that time CME price ranged....approximately 178 down to 167.....this is a 6% drop....you have to remember 6%....for a little while longer....because I’m going to the next chart.....
just remember 6%......6%......
CME....Current chart...today....weekly...
I marked off on this chart....what i see as an anomaly.....April 2005....
Now i ask you is it possible the same anomaly...will repeat...on CME price...over the next few days.....the answer is ....there’s a 60/40....chance....I will see this anomaly repeat itself.....
That April 2005....dip below the 200 day....was approximately 6%....... remember 6%....
Now I want to leave the past and come back to the present....CME...is about to test the 200 day again...at $514..or $515....
If CME does dip below the 200 day.....the next support is...anybody’s guess.....including my 6%...below the 200 day....
I calculated ....6% below the 200 day..and it...equals...$484....
IF I SEE $484....on CME......I am sure this is the 100 to 1 odds in my favor....I will make money....If I buy CME at this price.....$484...
What will cause CME...to go to $484....I can only think of one thing....CME raises it’s bid on BOT....It. will have to come close to ICE...which is 14%....higher......and 14%...higher is a lot of percentage......enough (percentage)...in fact ....to drive CME well below IT”S CURRENT 200 DAY.... exactly 6%....below CME's 200 day......I'll repeat....exactly 6%...below CME's 200 day....
ZEE....
7 comments:
i really like the analysis, it brings to mind the old adage "history repeats itself". are you concerned with the divergence between the PPO and the stock price? and if so what is your stop price below 484?
i'll be following the stock now and am anxious to see how it plays out. definately a great obsevation tho.
CME not there yet, might get there tomorrow.
Zeebro, looking at your candleglances, and a number of those suckers are STILL dropping...
You got a time frame for this recovery, or does it only work in a bull? (Meaning we could be close to a turn here).
Plumber, how the heck did you find us over here?
Plunger, thanks for the kind words.I hope you and jake can find some common ground,or not, the two of you have truly mastered the English language. And the verbal sparring impresses me to the max. thanks zee
I'll have to go to TK's (tim Knight's, to get my next trading idea, as i didn't find one thing today.
or alok might give me one,or the comment section in the new post might bring in some fresh thoughts.
Trader buddy of ours down South likes BRLC... haven't really scoped it yet, but looks like it's cleared $7 for takeoff...
zee hold on, i'll come to the rescue, just let me have dinner and then i'll work on getting something.
Jake and Plunger you two are funny, i hope you both continue over here too and make zee's board lively too. i mean why leave all the love only on TK's board hahahaha
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