HAL HIGH = OIH HIGH? = DIA top?= 80/20...
That is the question...HAL eps is about 10% higher than JUNE of 2006, when HAL easily rose to $34.
Well HAL is back and $34 not only looks like a target price, it looks like one HAL will beat easily...so i’m raising my target to 35.6...which equals 27.8 + $8 price channel = 80/20
HAL at $35.6 and OIH at whatever equals 90/10 my short on OIH will work...I’m buying the JUNE 165p..at $5.80 if i can get it...at that price...
Downside...I don’t see any at this time.....
MAY 13, 2007
you might think i’m obsessed with successfully shorting the DIA. Only when i think the odds are 70/30 in my favor like right now...i’m taking march low of 11940 and adding 8.5%..(Q1 eps growth numbers).. to that..and that equals 12954...so anything over 12954... is overbought...
and if and when the DIA breaks below the 20 day...there’s nothing there to stop the DIA from further downward pressure until the 50 day...and if you read the S&P Q1 (8.5%) growth figures, = [ 11940 + 8.5% = 12954.90]..well i’m always the last to know this stuff, and then the rest of the market gets to take advantage of me....so hopefully i have come in a couple a days ahead of them, this time...
zee ...when the party’s over....TURN OUT THE LIGHTS!!!!
DOWNSIDE...DIA short ...we get a correction, but it holds at the 20 day...and then the DIA rallys from 12774 ( feb. high..)..+ 8.5%..=..13855...doubtful...
you might think i’m obsessed with successfully shorting the DIA. Only when i think the odds are 70/30 in my favor like right now...i’m taking march low of 11940 and adding 8.5%..(Q1 eps growth numbers).. to that..and that equals 12954...so anything over 12954... is overbought...
and if and when the DIA breaks below the 20 day...there’s nothing there to stop the DIA from further downward pressure until the 50 day...and if you read the S&P Q1 (8.5%) growth figures, = [ 11940 + 8.5% = 12954.90]..well i’m always the last to know this stuff, and then the rest of the market gets to take advantage of me....so hopefully i have come in a couple a days ahead of them, this time...
zee ...when the party’s over....TURN OUT THE LIGHTS!!!!
DOWNSIDE...DIA short ...we get a correction, but it holds at the 20 day...and then the DIA rallys from 12774 ( feb. high..)..+ 8.5%..=..13855...doubtful...
MAY 13 , 2007
"It still looks like we're going to fall short of 10% [growth]," said John Butters, senior research analyst at Thomson Financial.
5/13.07...CBS..The earnings growth rate for the first quarter rose further, to 8.5% from 8.1% last week.The growth rate for the second quarter is now 3.2%, down from 3.5% a week ago largely because of cuts to estimates in the technology sector.
THESE are the numbers, which makes anything over 12,900 overbought....so i know we at least correct back down to 12,900....and without any significant companies reporting, except for a beaten up retail sector this week, this could be game over this week....
EARNINGS TUES HD WMT DCX....WED....FD HPQ ..THURS ... JWN JCP 9AM....
ECONOMIC...TUES .CPI..JOHNSON RETAIL AND USB RETAIL.. LOOKS BAD....WED...HOUSING..LOOKS BAD...FRI...CONSUMER CONFIDENCE..
MAY 12/13 2007
I think this is what Johnny was looking at....sort of...JCP is the an American Monolith, when it comes to retail....if JCP’s eps fails then the economy has failed...so I’ll assume the economy is on all cylinders and so is JCP...
if JCP doesn’t hold at $75.0 then i have to go with the full $12 price channel match...what goes up $12, ($75 UP TO NEAR $87)...goes down $12.=72.6 OR SO.....80/20 to 100 to 1.....so buy JCP at $75....downside is JCP test $12 price channel in which $72.6 is the right entry price and = 100 to 1...
if you are looking at all of these crashed out retail stocks...like i am...then you gotta love it...there’s nothing wrong with the retail sector fundamentally.
ZEE.......
MAY 12 2007
I bailed out of the LIZ JUNE 35 calls ..and bought the JUNE 30 calls...now just have to wait for LIZ to start coming back up 35/ or higher..
GOOD news for airline stocks...the airlines are joining together now and raising airfares $10 per ticket, to cover fuel costs, which have been declining according to INT, jet fuel supplier, which got hit may 11, Add INT to your watchlist, as it will undoubtedly go back up fast....This especially helps my LCC calls..
DKS 49 = 2 BOT .OR .50 = 200 DAY .C’est la question? .. DKS 06/08...2.03/2.42/2.92 ...07/08..3.8b/4.4b .....07/08.. 2.39/2.84= retail sporting goods ..eps trend is on fire...
.no reason to test below $48 this cycle... 50.2 is excellent entry price...$49, entry starts stretching the rsi into below 20..(doubtful)...price channel match, up /down 9.35..= $50.2... looks good and = that 200 day...downside .$49 = 2 bottom.., $49..entry starts stretching the rsi into below 20..doubtful...
On the weekly chart DKS you can see where the the 40MA was breached
...... so DKS below $50...and that’s another matching breach and maybe we do test $48 in the longer term.=..2 or three weeks out...
MAY 11 2007
ANDE exact $9 price channel match...hooray...and resting on 200 day = 39.2..this is good news for other companies like VSE PEIX BG POT MGPI AVR MON ADM
buying ANDE june 30 call 5.10...at 39.5 resting on 200 day..price channel match..= $9..48.4 - $9= 39.4 ..price met...eps trend xlnt...06/08= 2.19/2.63/3.14.. rev 07/08...1.86b/2.72b..= 80/20...downside..rsi 34..decides to test rsi 25..sector is ethanol...sort of..
honorable mentions STO CAH AMGN FD GPI YRCW CAH CRR KCI SYK GPI WFMI INT
and i shorted MEE june 35 put 4.80..
ZEE
THANKS JOHNNY for the AHG fib info...looks like several signals gave the low away on this stock... AND AVONLON BAY...AVB...buy on the dips.....for goodness sakes.....
"It still looks like we're going to fall short of 10% [growth]," said John Butters, senior research analyst at Thomson Financial.
5/13.07...CBS..The earnings growth rate for the first quarter rose further, to 8.5% from 8.1% last week.The growth rate for the second quarter is now 3.2%, down from 3.5% a week ago largely because of cuts to estimates in the technology sector.
THESE are the numbers, which makes anything over 12,900 overbought....so i know we at least correct back down to 12,900....and without any significant companies reporting, except for a beaten up retail sector this week, this could be game over this week....
EARNINGS TUES HD WMT DCX....WED....FD HPQ ..THURS ... JWN JCP 9AM....
ECONOMIC...TUES .CPI..JOHNSON RETAIL AND USB RETAIL.. LOOKS BAD....WED...HOUSING..LOOKS BAD...FRI...CONSUMER CONFIDENCE..
MAY 12/13 2007
I think this is what Johnny was looking at....sort of...JCP is the an American Monolith, when it comes to retail....if JCP’s eps fails then the economy has failed...so I’ll assume the economy is on all cylinders and so is JCP...
if JCP doesn’t hold at $75.0 then i have to go with the full $12 price channel match...what goes up $12, ($75 UP TO NEAR $87)...goes down $12.=72.6 OR SO.....80/20 to 100 to 1.....so buy JCP at $75....downside is JCP test $12 price channel in which $72.6 is the right entry price and = 100 to 1...
if you are looking at all of these crashed out retail stocks...like i am...then you gotta love it...there’s nothing wrong with the retail sector fundamentally.
ZEE.......
MAY 12 2007
I bailed out of the LIZ JUNE 35 calls ..and bought the JUNE 30 calls...now just have to wait for LIZ to start coming back up 35/ or higher..
GOOD news for airline stocks...the airlines are joining together now and raising airfares $10 per ticket, to cover fuel costs, which have been declining according to INT, jet fuel supplier, which got hit may 11, Add INT to your watchlist, as it will undoubtedly go back up fast....This especially helps my LCC calls..
DKS 49 = 2 BOT .OR .50 = 200 DAY .C’est la question? .. DKS 06/08...2.03/2.42/2.92 ...07/08..3.8b/4.4b .....07/08.. 2.39/2.84= retail sporting goods ..eps trend is on fire...
.no reason to test below $48 this cycle... 50.2 is excellent entry price...$49, entry starts stretching the rsi into below 20..(doubtful)...price channel match, up /down 9.35..= $50.2... looks good and = that 200 day...downside .$49 = 2 bottom.., $49..entry starts stretching the rsi into below 20..doubtful...
On the weekly chart DKS you can see where the the 40MA was breached
...... so DKS below $50...and that’s another matching breach and maybe we do test $48 in the longer term.=..2 or three weeks out...
MAY 11 2007
ANDE exact $9 price channel match...hooray...and resting on 200 day = 39.2..this is good news for other companies like VSE PEIX BG POT MGPI AVR MON ADM
buying ANDE june 30 call 5.10...at 39.5 resting on 200 day..price channel match..= $9..48.4 - $9= 39.4 ..price met...eps trend xlnt...06/08= 2.19/2.63/3.14.. rev 07/08...1.86b/2.72b..= 80/20...downside..rsi 34..decides to test rsi 25..sector is ethanol...sort of..
honorable mentions STO CAH AMGN FD GPI YRCW CAH CRR KCI SYK GPI WFMI INT
and i shorted MEE june 35 put 4.80..
ZEE
THANKS JOHNNY for the AHG fib info...looks like several signals gave the low away on this stock... AND AVONLON BAY...AVB...buy on the dips.....for goodness sakes.....
4 comments:
johnny good call on shld...i can never get shld right...and as far as abv..= gold, coke ,beer...yahoo supplies very sketchy eps info, so abv is tough to call...i just buy abv on the dips...and keep assuming eps trend is on fire...even though there are only sketchy eps facts to go by. if you see abv near the 50 day, please let me know, as that will be the time for me to bring up a chart on abv
zee
zee
Z,
Actually, AVB was what I had in mind. I waited too long and missed the bounce on Friday. That happens to me a lot. Got to be more disciplined.
Z,
Check out JCP. Strong support at this price and it just bounced off of the 200 dma. Not to mention the low rsi. And the eps...
ok i haven't checked out JCP yet...but i just wanted to comment on LCC target price...of $44..sometime early june, because i think airlines start rebounding by then, because of holidays...and as far as retail stocks....fundamentally there is nothing wrong with the retail sector..or the economy.... so buy on the dips and sell when news gets better.
zee
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