Monday, May 28, 2007

EPS trend, is it important?

It wasn’t until JAN of 2006, I started noticing that the eps numbers off yahoo finance, the 06/07 yearly eps estimates, directly correlated with the stocks price. Before that time, i was guessing a lot, like everyone else. Since discovering yearly eps and it’s trend, , losing trades have been few and far between. I’ve made quite a bit of other discoveries since then, but yearly eps 06/07 was by far my most important discovery. Now i’m looking up 07/08 eps estimates and maintaining bi weekly records, for over 1000 companies. Thank goodness for MSFT excel. I can copy and paste the entire list in one fell swoop.
Before EPS, I had developed price and percent channel matches. They worked 60 to 70% of the time so i did alright. Now that I’ve added EPS trend, it seems i can do no wrong....imagine that.
Zee...
How did i miss double bottom on COF at $70...i just don’t know. So much to keep track of. COF has enough EPS trend to make it to $83, i doubt it can make it to $86.

in OCT eps 06/07 was 7.63/8.26.....now it’s 07/08 7.16/ 8.27...07 in oct used to be 8.26, now 07 is 7.16. approx 15% lower. Who cares the market doesn’t care. Here’s why....in oct 2006, the 2007 forecast was for 8.26. now in 2007, the 2008 forecast is 8.26. I’ll consider that a match. And since that’s a match, i should get a match in stock price at either the july 06 earnings month price = 86 or the oct earnings month = 83. so I don’t know how COF gets to 83 or 86, but im fairly confident i will see COF at these prices. When i do I will attempt short sell....
so in short, i'm either missing a great short sell opportunity at $80, todays price. Or my EPS trend analysis is saving me lots of pain, and telling me to look for higher prices in the coming days, before activating the actual short. I can safely try at $83. and if that price gets stopped out, then i'm assured success at the $86 price.
zee

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hey Zee, did you catch the action on IYR and ICF - the reits are moving on the new acquisition Archstone deal...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-futures-lean-higher-amid/story.aspx?guid=%7BF833F663%2D2837%2D4154%2DAA7E%2D27464158A563%7D&dist=TNMostRead

Reits up seriously (?) bounce off 200 dma

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