I leave you with OIH chart, and I rest my case. Short OIH and posiible market pullback signal at ....OIH = 176.=.90/10...or = (70/30, it's very hard to short OIH correctly, but at these price levels, i only have to be correct to within $5, to get my money back)....and longs, set stops ...and buy some VIX....

$epx, is about to be handed it’s hat. I calculated price channels of 74 and 80. I took the 80 channel, added that to 299, this last known low in EPX cycle, and came up to 379.

I set the 1.00 fib line at 379, and voila, $EPX bounced off the 0.68 line 4 times , the past year. Coincidence? So $EPX at 379 = xle and oih top = market top, 60/40..and i expect some form of pullback in June , down to ?....80/20 im right that $epx tops at 379 if it even gets that high... in the meantime, since i already know that xle and oih top at the same time...im buying the oih june 170 put, when is see $epx at 373 thru 379..should be interesting...
i attempt to explain off and on in detail how to combine price channels with eps to get stock target prices, if you read the march 5 blogs on forward, copy these march posts into word and edit the word file into an outline or pamphlet.
Buying NTAP 27.5 call 3.30 , i think ntap down in smpathy to ELX...downside ntap decides to test 11 price channel at 29....at 29 = 90/10 ,

downside ...ntap deadcat cat bounces in $4 channels so even ntap at 29.5 i can still expect to see 33.5 sometime in the future , and also Ntap although forward eps trend is hard to read 2007 = 1.12 ...08= 1.38 or 07/08 = 1.12/1.38...revenue trend forward is on fire like 35% up...07/08 2.80b / 3.62b ..
buy the NTAP june 27.5 or if you can stand risk, buy the 30 call, ( downside on buying June 30 call is if NTAP goes to 29.5, you'll have to triple up original quantity, at 0.50 and try to go for quadruple your money,(2.00) it's possible, 60/40), and i don't see any risk that the June 30 call will expire worthless.
And Bought Gas june 45 call 1.90 ...downside i don’t see any,,, i think eps is strong enough to test new yearly high , soon....... I'm also holding AVR calls, and now (other ethanol's ) PEIX and ADM and VSE and MGPI all look good.
Xom these charts are the main ones I only ever look at at, besides the little 2 mo's, that fit ten on a page, and for paid subscription fit 30, 2 mo's on a page.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?XOM
buy LCAPA, media company, at 110 or 112. sell within 3 to 5 days, take profits, quickly. fairly strong 30/50 signal..eps trend, is up, but evaluation is a concern in a major pullback.
zee,
keep checking back as i will be posting all weekend long
2 comments:
interesting analysis on OIH. I am using a mixture of other TA to time the top and so far I have been off for a week and its starting to hurt (june puts). Are you still waiting for your price target or are you short already?
-arkadyka@yaho.com
XLE, etc. Now that XLE and OIH has broken through projection level how do you see it playing out on the rest of the market. With XLE above 70 the market should be unhappy..technically...care to comment?
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