z-stock
RAIL makes train cars and I guess the country doesn’t need anymore, because RAIL no longer makes $6+ / share...(last june 06) 07/08 eps looks like this....4.33/2.37...so trend is going severely down...short at 200 day = now.= 52..70/30....or short at price channel match = $11 = $56ish..= 70/30...eps has come down since Feb 60 high,so I don’t think it double tops...
at $60 RAIL short is 100/0..if even gets that high...(ARII and TRN AND GBX are the other train guys.>>)
My AZO june 125 calls finally expired on Friday....
AZO first appeared as a buy on May 23, at this blog.
AZO june 125 call was selling for 3.90 the day I bought them....
AZO june 125 calls expired at $1370.00...
I expect the similar results from MSTR....60/40...or 70/30
As more time goes buy, i can raise odds to 80/20.....or 90/10..
Buy July 90 or July 95 calls..and sell AZO at $107 per share and / or $114 per share ...
I expect the July 90 call to eventually reach $2140.00
zee-dom
APC , here’s a Yahoo finance Pitfall or my pitfall.... (dilemna)..
2 For 1 Stock Split. Ex-Distribution Date: 5/30/2006.
JUN16 ... 3.38/4.02
APR5 ..... 3.63/4.53..
FEB9...... 4.14/4.76
DEC15.... 5.78/6.55
NOV20 ...5.80/6.52
OCT12.....5.55/6.40..
MAY12 ...06/07.... 5.52 / 6.05
APC made 6.05 in 07, back on May 12 2006.APC made 3.38 in 07, as of yesterday...so i made a mistake on APC eps trend,
back in May 07 blog....I said the eps trend was disasterous, when in fact i think...Yahoo, never put up 2 for 1 split eps numbers, until just about now...
if i divide APC May12 eps estimate 07 of 6.05, by 2, that equals, 3.02...
and now today June 16, APC eps 07 estimate is 3.38, which means APC eps trend is higher. may 06 = 3.02, and now jun 16 3.38 so APC can take out its 2006 highs...because it has the EPS power...
or yahoo has the numbers correct and APC is climbing to 56 on eps trending fumes...
BHI = OIH and when do I short BHI, and OIH at the same time...Back in may i had OIH target of 176 / 177..= 51 or 52 price channel. SO do the next best thing....figure out when BHI tops out and, voila OIH tops there too
so BHI short at 92 or 94 = 70*/30...92 = $30 price channel match...
BHI at 94.2 , I have to add in about 17% increase in forward earnings from last oct.... so total mis-use of fib lines...draw zero% at 62,,,and draw 50% at 78...and see where 100%..lands...landed at 94.2.
But this isn’t as important as the next market correction, which is going to be bad..I’ve started hearing 10% before July options expire......so I’m shorting BHI at 92 / 94.2 and just let the market make me the profit by falling....
zee
disclaimer::::as usual im probably 3 to 8 days ahead of actual correction...Ben talks at the end of JUNE....he'll most likely help my short sells, this time...
4 comments:
Hi z,
what do you think of JSDA options? JSDA is having support at 200MA, where the gap is filled.
thanks,
aymon
AYMON
JSDA JN16. 0.18/0.33 ...REV 54.9M/73.4M 90*DAYS AGO 0.22/0.37..eps is trending way down....looks like full test of 11.80....support...2oo day may not hold...
I try not to waste time on pre AMZN type eps negative to 20 cent..stocks. I see JSDA at $11.80, and i’d say that’s good support....I see JSDA at $16 and that’s short sell time....
Zee....
As far JSDA reaching $32..again...if ever......wait till 2011.....
OPTION july are priced fairly...just buy july 10 when they get added...(when jsda below 12)
zee
or dec 10 is good but ... jsda at 11.80 and you are looking at a major loss....there's so much downside to this trade, i would forbid anyone to try to make this work, unless jsda at 11.80...
hey zee, sorry i missed all your messages in the weekend. i was out and forgot to log out. will catch you tonight.
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