when the spy hit the 146's there was so much to buy i lost track...
JOYG,AKAM,GS,ICE,NYX,NMX,NUE,X,ATI,BTU,CCJ,ACI,SUN,TSO,VLO,VMC,MLM,IYR,XHB AND ON AND ON AND ON...
holobots4: all good companies close their gaps and BSC has a gap at 130 so next target price is 131
holobots4: the slow sto crossover this morning confirms the 131 target
holobots4: whenever the slow sto crosses over, it usually signals a dead cat bounce is coming and in the case of BSC ... its a $7 to $9 bounce
WEDNESDAY JULY 25 2007
NUE / STEEL SECTOR, I FINALLY GET A CLEAR BUY SIGNAL ON NUE, BUY NOW OR WAIT FOR POSSIBLE $54 PRICE....PLAT THE AUG 50 OR 55 CALL
ICE , IF YOU AREE A LONG TIME READER THEN YOU KNOW I AM NEVER WRONG ABOUT ICE...BUY NOW,,,PLAY THE AUG 140 THRU 155 CALLS
JOYG , PLAY THE AUG 45 OR 50 CALL, FORGET THE NEWS, THIS IS AN XLI STOCK...I TOLD YOU ABOUT XLI GOING TO HIGH 44 OR 45...THESE XLI STOCKS WILL OUT PERFORM THE FINANCIALS Q3 AND Q4...DON'T FORGET...
WEDNESDAY JULY 25
JULY 24 TUESDAY
AMZN will really help the retail sector in the morning, KSS,GPI,RTH,XLY,GIS,OMX,LDG,SPLS,GOOG,EBAY, AND OTHERS
Ntri DOWN $9 IN AFTERHOURS
Amzn UP $14 in after hoursXBD, BOTTOMED TODAY....
EVERYTHING IS UP IN AFTERHOURS...SO TOMORROW LOOKS VERY BULLISH...
XLI IS THE NEW LEADER IN THE STOCK MARKET.... GET USED TO IT....XLI JUST KICKED OUT XLF...
JULY 23
i'm waiting for TSCO downside = 46.2 = 200ma = im in...BUY the aug 40 call or 45 call...
and 46.2 equals $6 channel match. i don't know if TSCO gets this low, so its on watch list
Earnings season is a wash....there are not enough upside surprises to push SPY to 156 and there’s not enough earnings misses to pullback..look for sideways or climbing wall of worry trading until AUG...
SIL 18.12 was the new bottom...
MGM testing HUGE 30/50 signal at 80.9...i see 79 and im in...or buy now..
JULY 27 FRI GDP report at 3.5%... so on thurs buy anything....i see 4 out of 5 stocks going up on those kind of numbers...
I am buying the GS aug 110 call at 4.70 / 4.90 two days ago this thing was in the 900’s...
And congrats to all who bought my JBX 70 calls ...up $200 today...double up...doc usually buys ten of these at a time, so congrats to doc on making $2000....
VMC aug 100 calls holding at the 200 day...yeah...
IYR any lower and im in SPG too
CCJ,GPI,UNG,PNC,CIT,ENER,SNIC, SIL...NEAR BOTTOM...look for first up day...up less than 0.5% that up day...buy it...up greater than 0.5% buy the next day...
zee...
32 comments:
what are you expectations on the mkt once august starts?
also, what are your thoughts on oil and other commodity stocks?
thnx
Roger
Roger,
lots of analysts think market tanks BIG in AUG, probably be hit by sub-prime stocks moving down the hardest...$100 billion outstanding on sub-prime with BSC holding $3 bil of that...
did you see NE,HAL,DO,WFT, and a few other OIH companies in afterhours
here's link, good until 6pm
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/stockresearch/screener/afterhours.asp?siteid=mktw
that all crashed 5%, so i'd say today was the top short term to one month out, for xle and OIH
and i have puts on AU,ABX and NEM,,,,i stopped posting my puts on this blog because they cause too much uproar and negative comments....i've actually made more money on puts this year, than in any other year...
zee...
More money on PUTS? Wow, that's crazy... especially on a strong rally to the upside on almost every index YTD.
...keep doing your thing. When/If the market reverses, it'll be a breeze for you.
I'll be using Excel to calculate break-even points on the AAPL strangle play. Then I'll see if it's worth it. I'll post it tonight.
Hey Gio , i think i was at your blog site tonight...
http://intuitivetraders.blogspot.com/
i really like to read what you have on your blog...i like solving stock target prices, i used to do them at TKs and post them, but he is so ungrateful, that I quit posting in his comment section. Youre picks go all over the place. I really like that...Its similar to my style....I�m all over the place..i see money in every sector....
that AAPL strangle requires to big a move for me to try it...8% just to break even...but if AAPL moves 15%, well i missed a good one....
as far as Puts. They are easier for me to figure out, than calls...always been that way... I dont know why...I look for for negative changes in EPS month to month estimates i find at yahoo finance.or read the downgrade reports.....and then its easy to calculate the next top price the stock can make it too...like CTX.. that one i nailed right at the 200 day or some such and NEM is right at the 200 day right now...NEM has bad mo. to mo. eps trend...but im waiting for GOLD to crash....or after GDP report this FRI and ISM report next MON...then after AUG 1st ...nothing to hold gold or oil or the dollar or metal or world markets or anything else up....in my opinion..and .i'll be shorting SPY....probably...
zee
Hey Z...
I saw ur posts @ my site, thanks for the good words. My picks are all over the place because I like to trade where money is flowing, whether it be in (long) or out (shorts).
AAPL premiums are kind of high, especially on the call side. I'll have to get tomorrow's numbers for a better read. An 8% move from here would mean $156 vs $133. That's about $11 move from 145... that doesn't sound too good. I think it moves double digits over a few days, not in one day, which makes it tricky with theta declining.
Actually, I'm working on a similar trade that I think will work. My idea is creating a strangle on SNCR, which is tied closely to AAPL. I'm way up over 100% on SNCR this year, but I ain't in love with them. I think they are a bit overextended, and the PUTs are cheap. Unfortunately, the calls don't go high enough for me to create a traditional strangle. But that's okay, going into earnings, I'm biased on the PUT side anyway, so if I'm wrong, at least whatever calls I bought will soften the blow.
The Timing: AAPL reports Wednesday, SNCR reports Thursday! Wow. We could get a two-punch combo.
The Options: SEP@40 $3.70 / SEP@30 $1.11, SNCR trades at $38.53... if it falls, it will fall >15%!! That puts us around $32.
...I like SEPtember because if it falls, I expect a gradual trend down after the first big drop. There are a lot of people, like me, who are dying to lock in their profits. If AAPL gives us a reason, then we will.
I don't know, it makes a little more sense to me than AAPL. Everyone trades AAPL, its too crowded.
-gio
zee,
looks like tech are bouncing back..and taking mkt back up with it..
do you think mkt would go back up to make new high if the economci data and AAPLs earnings are good?
thnx
Roger
Z,
Nice call on MGM, picked up some calls when it dropped to 78.75, and they are looking nice.
Thanks, Mike
http://mastrader.blogspot.com/
Alright Mike, i wasnt sure if you were getting my instant messages or not, at least you came by the blog, that’s great. Im posting during market hours, at my friends blog MAS
Heres his link
http://mastrader.blogspot.com/
i used to post at beannies but i like the atmosphere at MAS’s site
Roger,
i have a cap on DOW at 14,000
Zee
GIO , i’m so glad that your site is a daily site...this is great. i'll look at SNCR later today.
SHOOT, did you see ENER today...i knew it would take off
BIDU 174 =19% pullback, that seems reasonable to me, plus 2 days under the 20 day, might be the buy signal,
Hey Z...
What an ugly day.
Anyway, I played a strangle on NTRI today. So far it's getting pounded after hours. So, do I hold? Hmmm... Here's my strangle:
.NSITJ .7 / .NSIHO 1.25
Both are August, @50 & @75 strikes.
Did you pick up some BIDU puts?
I'm somewhat mixed on the market, with such optimism in AMZN in a.h. right now despite a nasty day on the Nasdaq.
BTW, I'm scratching the SNCR options idea, since the pricing of them are way off. Despite a drop today, the puts and calls never moved that much. I did, however sell all my shares based on the AT&T news regarding the iPhone.
-gio
hi Zee,
i know you mentioned about earnings not being so great and that would push the mkt down..but i have two thing point out..
the put/call ratio is 1.49..which is kinda scary ..lot of beaish people.
also, according to last weeks COT data, commerical added to their net long position, while speculators added their short position..any thoughts? thanks
Roger
Alright GIO, GOOD WORK =$200 profit, on NTRI , sell both contracts at opening bell, you never know if NTRI might snap back up $4 intra day...and your current NTRI call is too out of the money to move at all......
Roger, I do not post PUTS on my blog. I really have a hard time explaining all the details that go into my PUT positions, except for maybe Tim Knight, who understands them, thoroughly.
zee
and i guess the commercial COT people got it wrong.cause look at them today..it happens...
usually financial lead the mkt and break down when the mkt break down.
mkt just started breaking down today, and if you expect 10-15% correction, dont you think XBD would go down even more?
thanks
sorry again.
Roger
Roger no problem, NEM fails to exceed 45. That might be an easier one to understand.
ANON, as far as i can tell XBD bottomed today. However 200ma = 246, and that will be the next test. XBD fails to exceed 246 / 248 then next support is at 220 / 225. This is possible, because that whole group is holding 100 bil. In bad loans.
that many bad loans,
The US ( probably by design) has now sown the seeds that created a multi- million + number of consumers / borrowers, that will understand financial instruments. Having been burned once by financial tools, these same consumers will self educate themselves, to an expert level, so they will never default or lose (short sell a house) on a loan again.
On another note,
Los Angeles, is in the lead again.... developers built a 10,000 unit high rises , with 250 sq. foot apts. They are very small apts, but I think its important.
Do you still like X and SUN?
ANON
X = 100 IS MY TARGET BUY PRICE,
SUN TSO VLO NUE ...ALL LOOK GOOD....
ZEE
Hey Z,
I've noticed you're rotating back into energy (sun, joyg etc.). I like the dip there too.
ICE is a buy. I'll be buying the calls with you, but probably a few months out.
My NTRI strangle turned out to be too weak. I'll have to hold the puts and hope that this downgrade will bring it down.
As for aaple... damn! Wish I bought those calls. Looks like they get a new high...
gio
bidu!!!!
zee..got a question for you.
are you still bearish on the general mkt and expecting 10-15% correction despite stellar earnings from amzn and aapl or have your views changed?
and if you are why are you going long stocks?
pete
zee.i think you might be wrong about your market call..it looks like it could have been fake breakdown in the mkt..the earnings should push the mkt up..also, check out chinese mkt..looks like want to explode could cause world market rally..don;t you think?
may be that is why commerical added their long position last week..just some thoughts..
Roger
Pete, Roger
DIA, SPY or QQQQ. Im pretty good at shorting these...DIA at 140 , buy puts SPY at 156 Buy puts....im pretty good at shorting just about anything...i caught AZO at 140, both times for sucessful shorts...and i caught the AZO bottom too...its on the blog somewhere...awhile back i also told people not to ever short AMZN...think that was pretty good advice...but now that AMZN has some computerized trading going on, i bet I can crack the code and figure out where to short it....ill try..if i have some time...that;ll be a nice return...
zee
I"M still waiting for NEM to get to 45 so i can short that...
pete do you follow economic reports? theres a good one coming out on friday...THE GDP...estimates are 3.5%, which is just out of the ball park...look for the market to go really high...in fact buyers are already coming into the market ahead of the report....these are the little things i notice....THEN monday is ISM and MERGER MONDAY... so three up days in a row...then CORRECTION TIME.....
GIO i bought the XBD stocks including BSC and GS JPM and ICE PJC ... i think they will have a really good run over the next three days....NTRI puts i didnt see what happened, i thought you had that locked down....
ZEE
and for goodness sakes buy some NUE CALLS...you will never see NUE this oversold for a long long time
Hey Z... u buying today? I think bulls got hit hard this week, and we head south early this summer. Shorting every bounce til winter.
-Gio
Hi Z-stock:
weren;t you looking for s&p to trade 10-15% lower once the correction starts?
and also correction usually happens in ABC form..so this is only wave A in my opinion..would like your views..
do you think it is over and we are gonna make new highs?
Roger
What concerns me is the lack of leadership this week. GOOG disappoints, and AAPL & BIDU's numbers couldn't stop the market from falling today!
I guess tomorrow's GDP numbers is a big indicator.
... supports everywhere are broken.
Hey Z, you still planning on buying the dip in the steel/metal/commodity sectors? I'm thinking of loading up on RS. Right now I'm short TCK (flipped my position) since I think it will crash through its short term support level.
-g
ROGER i totally agree with you on wave 1 of three waves lower...I'm pretty sure we don't take out 14000 anytime soon, maybe we do it middle of OCT....
zee
GIO anytime a stock goes into the RSI 20's like so many did today, they never ever really come back from that...Like my BSC at rsi 22... i plan to use it as short sell signal at 130/131, my one exception that i can remember was AZO...123 up to even higher 140...
zee
i wonder if the DIA eventually ends up rsi 22, that would be a devestatingly large pullback
Hey Z... excellent call on ICE. I'm a buyer tomorrow regardless of GDP numbers. I still would like JOYG to consolidate a little. Nevertheless, lots of low volume sales everywhere.. makes for good buys.
-gio
GIO
JPM and MS up in afterhours XME steel sector down 0.93 cent or 1.57% after hours i think this is bad for steel ...i get lucky on ICE everytime...this time i picked the 0.61 fib signal = 141.8 as the support...last time it was a channel match...something always new with ICE...
ZEE
z.
great call on ICE..
quick question.
at what level do you think the mkt or spy will put its ultimate low or the bottom? and what kind of time frame are you lookin at? the one from february was very quick..and bottomed in 3 weeks. thanks
Roger
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