Wednesday, August 29, 2007

4.5 billion in puts,

SEPT 3 2007

BAD NEWS UNG...FORGET UNG...
Someone said from INO..++ http://intelligencepress.com/ ++++.Low natural gas prices probably will continue until this fall, and it would not be a surprise to see the front-month contract price for gas drop below $5/MMBtu,
WHICH translates to UNG might see RSI 25 and $31 as the next new support....UNG could turn into a falling knife, so i’m bailing on UNG...

FRIDAY'S EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS CAN EITHER TANK THE MARKET, OR FUEL IT HIGHER...HARD TO CALL WHICH...IN THE PRESENT CLIMATE...The consensus is for 120K new jobs..so a miss is probably devestating...


WHERE EVER XLE decides to drop it's hat, will determine the next market top, short term...i've outlined two possibilities....XLE at 74 requires IWM to break thru $80, which ='s IWM 200 day...
I HAVE SUN AT $75 AS A POSSIBLE SHORT SELL ENTRY TARGET...WE'LL SEE...


NEM SHORT SELL .......GOLD AND NEM might reach the top at the same time...

AEM ... I SEE THAT (AEM) AT 44.5 / 46.0 AND I'M BUYING THE SEPT OR OCT 45 PUTS...THAT HAS AN 80% CHANCE OF MAKING PROFITS...
I MENTIONED ERJ AS A POSSIBLE SHORT, DON'T DO IT...THEY ARE COMING OUT WITH A NEW BUSINESS JET, THIS MONTH I THINK...


SEPT2
I DON'T THINK IWM REACHES 85 IN THE NEXT MONTH...SO LEAVES 80 AND 81.5 FOR PULLBACKS...MARKET MIGHT BE STABILIZING, AND WILL PULL BACK ON DAYS WHEN THERE IS NEW HOUSING OR MORTGAGE APPLICATION NEWS...AND IF OVERNIGHT , THE OVERSEAS MARKET PULLS BACK...


IN THE MEANTIME ..I'LL USE AEM AS A NICE SHORT SELL SIGNAL...I SEE AEM AT 45 / 46 AND START TO WEAKEN THERE..IT'S TIME TO SHORT SOMETHING IF NOT EVERYTHING...AEM HAS REVERSE EPS TREND OVER LAST 6 MONTH'S SO I DON'T SEE IT GOING TO $48 EVER...


SEPT 1 2007
WHAT happens when VIX tests its 50 MA..at 20.74..A few up days in a row and VIX can get to 17 or 18, or at least to RSI 30...I see vix at RSI 30 and i’m buying VIX calls...and short selling the market...but first i have to see what happens at VIX 20.74....


THERE'S A COLD front coming on SEPT 7th to the midwest that reaches down to Texas...so if you own UNG CALLS, the market will probably rally round this event and you will see a spike in UNG's PRICE...THIS WEEK...

THE FOLLOWING is a list of companies that have had their EPS TRENDS SLASHED,,, they have now chance or regaining their former hi falutting prices, so if you see any of them near a critical short sell test..50 day , double top, creeping up to It’s 200 day...please let me know, so I can short sell IT...
Thanks
TXU,UAUA,UPL,VMC,WCC,WLT,WM.WMT,WY,ZBRA,ZUES,TLM,SSD,RYL,RES,PNW,PLCE,NXY,NFX,MTG.MTH,RYL,MSTR,MS,MNST,LXK,JOYG,IOC,HSY,HOV,HET,HERO,HD,GT,EXBD,CAL,BSC,ACI,AMR,


FOUND ANOTHER SHORT SELL SIGNAL ........THIS ONE IS ABOUT 100%, FOOL PROOF...SHORT IT ...JUST DO IT...BUY THE SEPT 60 PUT...


OTHER SHORT SELL POSSIBLES.....ITW,ERJ**,BDX,DRS,MON...IN A FEW DAYS, THESE ARE DOUBLE TOPS, I THINK THEY WILL FAIL....MDR,NOV,NTG,PXJ,SII


OK SO IM NO STORM CHASER...BUT HURRICANES THAT HIT THE GULF NATURAL GAS REGION START RIGHT HERE....IMAGE FROM MSN OR YAHOO WEATHER...SITE
I THINK I SEE TWO REALLY BIG CELLS, SO I'LL JUST HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS...


4.5 billion in puts, that the market will crash before Sept 21, 2007....OR ITS JUST A FANCY WAY TO DO A BANK LOAN

here are some links


rumorville, has a big comment section on the matter



new york jets blog, carries the article...

new york jets blog, carries the article...


and finally, a debunker rumor control
snopes, another different take on the puts...4.5 billion today and 2.1billion yesterday..

chicago times ...today...put options

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/columnists/chi-0109190296sep19,0,3496437.story

firefox google search
firefox google search

http://www.google.com/search?q=terrorism+put+stock+market&hl=en&safe=off&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&start=10&sa=N

13 comments:

jet said...

So what do u think, zee? I think its most likely a false rumor, but that does not mean market wont tank in september... do u think Gosu's call of low in end of sept has any merits?

Anonymous said...

zee baby.. what's up with those UNG calls.. never saw the green since i bought them @2.20..
Another loss:)?

z-stock said...

hey anon are you in the sept 35 calls, cause i got beat up on those and now im in the 34 calls and doing just fine...im thinking the 32 calls are probably the best to own... i guess UNG is stuck in $2 channel until it rally's....at least im happy about one thing, the dow can tank 300 points and UNG is up....thursday is the natural gas supply report....the last 4 or 5 have been very bearish and sank the UNG, i'm hoping this week, the report is at least half and half...and UNG is up...this time...

if not i still have 24 days till expire and a for sure hurricane coming, in that time frame......

jet....ive seen gosu nail the exact time to start buying two times this year....so i pay very great attention to his longer term forecasts....
and as far as retest of 12,800 or lower, it is a certainty, i just don't have the exact time...but i have the IWM and the IYT chart on this blog to help you nail when to move into short sells...
zee

z-stock said...

oh and jet, keep sept 18th on your calendar....that's when ben bernanke sinks the dow 1000 points....it's possible...
zee
i don't think he is going to cut interest rates and then the whole financil sector will be in an uproar and tank.....maybe even lower than last time...

that's how i come up with lower than 12,500...

jet said...

tsl was really a nice bottom.... yes I am keeping 9/18 in mind, in fact I am considering pulling out of everything. Yes Gosu seems to have some merits of calling correction but he never explain why 9/30..., what about october crash, hmmmmmm, I guess right now seems long tech and short financial is the way to go

z-stock said...

ok jet...heres whats probably happening next 4 months, into early Jan...

i'm sticking with SHORT IWM at $80 ( HOOK OR CROOK)...and that signals .. time to short everything...I think it's too soon for the IWM to make a stab over it's 200 day...it took 12 weeks to go back above IWM 200 day last time IWM fell below it...and when it did it was short lived...In fact it takes most stocks several attempts to crossover their 200 days, when coming up from such a depth...

what will make IWM go above 200 day are the Q3 and Q4 earnings that are going to be off the map, XMAS rally is going to be huge....that's when IWM will get back over it's 200 day...so, Oct or Nov, don't short IWM at $80 = 200 day..Buy IWM instead...
zee
so jet, i think this is why gosu is always right...by the end of Sept, the market should be focused on Q3 earnings....
I remember one Oct a while back...when stocks just went straight up...after a rough patch like we are having now... I vaguely remember it, memory not as good as it used to be, but i remember the pain... because i got killed killed trying to short sell in Oct...that year...

Anonymous said...

Zee,

in bush's speech a few mins ago he said " we are not bailing people out from mtg's they shouldn't be in" do you think that could be a warning that Ben isn't going to "bail" out the markets with a rate cut ?
steve s

z-stock said...

hey steve, nice call on LEND...if you posted that at beannies....
i've been reading that several analysts/ pundits think there is a 100% chance that rates will be cut Sept 18....so if i see more reviews like that, then i guess the rates are going to go down....
zee...

Anonymous said...

Zee,

No that wasn't me on the lend call. but i readbeannie all the time. a harvard study is calling for a 100% chance for a cut.

Steve S

jet said...

Zee, I dont know if gosu is always right, since he never explained why, unless he is moving backwards in time.., there is no way to know for sure, but regardless I have been trimming my long position, too bad I let go some of my ice and aapl before they ran up today, but I guess better safe than sorry. TSL nice run today. Seems to me the only way market going to tank is if there is no interest rate cut.

z-stock said...

hey jet,
i'm sort of negative on the market...it just rose too fast, and now all the major players are back from their August vacations, so any news that the economy is heating up, will be veiwed with huge negativity, so volatility will rule in the month of Sept....
i don't know how we get back down to 13,000 / or worse... 12,500 , ( or what headlines it will take)...( a few good warnings about earnings would do the trick) and also friday's employment report this Fri. at 132k might do it ---that's a hot number, probably too hot for an interest rate cut)..)...

we probably will see some sort of retest of the lows this month....the good news is ...if you see any stocks like TSL at 40 again...that's probably the correct entry price....or GS or ICE double bottom, that'll be sweet for an entry...so patience will favor the prepared and the one sitting with the cash, to get in...
zee

jet said...

I am somewhat negative as well, but naz seems to be holding well. Good call on Csun at 5 by the way, though I didnt act on it.

z-stock said...

hey jet
i'm in wait and see mode...i don't have enough info, to tell weather i should be buying or short selling some more....
hopefully tomorrow, i'll see some strong signals, one way or the other...
zee
yeah CSUN is hot....although i'm still waiting for the MSFT or GOOG of solar power to emerge...it'll be the company with a major consumer breakthru....and i don't think that company exists yet...
There's a company in Texas working on brand new battery technology, and if they succeed, then storing solar power overnight, will become possible....so that'll be a good one...google search hyper capicitors...for the name of that company...

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