Friday, October 19, 2007

QQQQ , melt down (yes), or new high?

OCT 21 2007
COT IS BAD = SHORT THE MARKET
SPY 147.1 = 200 DAY
SPY GOES BELOW 147.1, AND JUST GET ON THE SIDELINES...

COT NUMBERS WORSE THIS WEEK THAN LAST WEEK
t-bills long
frozen food long
gold 80% short, that’s huge
silver, HUGE SHORT = short GDX, SIL
canadian dollar 80% short, that’s huge, short sell Canada,= ECA,CNQ,CNX,
short, peso,pound,euro
long yen
S&P 500 long and short=???????
QQQQ, barely long, QQQQ mini HUGE SHORT
IWM, slightly bullish
AUStralian dollar ..HUGE SHORT= BHP, short
USD dollar , extreme bull...short gold stocks, energy
NIKKEI Bullish,,,buy TM
VIX 50/50
Nat gas long
Heating oil SHORT
Fuel in general 50/50

OCT 20 2007 SATURDAY

BUSH really needs to come out and say,
the gov’t is not buying any more oil for the strategic reserves, for an indefinite time period....
He needs to kill the oil speculators, right now..

zee


ok here are some tough numbers to crunch,
and i think this might be how the big boys do it...
cause i keep landing on the chart numbers

JCP
MAY 5.5eps/6.3eps 07/08 =16% growth ... 5.5X16=88=07HI
OCT 5.15/5.94=16% =5.15..x 16=82.4 ( next High)
OR
( 5.5 down to 5.15)= 8%
88 (07 high) minus 8% = ( 5.5 down to 5.15) = 80.5 ( next high)
YAHOO’s numbers 5.1% growth /07…14.9% growth..08=TAKE HALF=9.9%
5.16 07eps X..9.9=51.08= possible LOW...
so i have a target of $80/82,
which might have to be lowered, if JCP xmas outlook , lowered some more...
right now it’s looking like the consumer is going to spend half of last year.
But i think the guy that wrote that is out of his mind...
so lets go with 15% reduction...
so take the 5.15 =07eps and knock off about (1/2)..7% = 4.78
then times 16% = 76.4,
so 76.4 might be the correct target price for JCP


OCT 19 2007 FRIDAY
NEXT WEEK,
The HOTTEST sectors in the S&P 500 report = XLI up 10%, XLV up 10% and XLK up 7%...watch for QQQQ to go to new yearly highs or completely collapse

JCP, UPGRADE, AH
downside = rsi 29.4 = strong very strong short sell signal

PJC


XLF, this holds, and market goes skyrocketing, on earnings next week
NO MORE BANK REPORTS, YEAH!!!!!

5 comments:

z-stock said...

I’m in favor of freedom from religion, but when you have generation after generation of idiot / steal, kill, demon kids in the schools,
i think i might want to kick out all the atheist science and math teachers and replace them with the 5% of christians,
that are speaking tongues chrsitians and give them a 25 year reign of rule at the local schools, and if they turn out a generation of idiot, violent kids, oh well , then sue me. (ALL large city neighborhoods will be safe, after the fundamentalists christians are finished with these idiot kids)
trust me, I'm right.
zee

jet said...

So u think market is going to tank big time tomorrow?

z-stock said...

Jet, you tell me
The hottest co’s in the s&p report this week...hotter than GOOG,
COT has USD BULL BULL BULL which is great for the DIA

I have COT saying GOLD collapse, so NO inflation
I have all the blogs saying GLOOM

COT is 50/50 VIX,Q,SPY IWM

So if there’s a signal beyond DIA at the 50 day
I sure can’t find one
So I’m open to any suggestions, UP or DOWN

jet said...

I am 50/50 at this point. I am still mostly long, no margin, reducing my holdings bit by bit.., will just have to see tomorrow

Anonymous said...

you sure are quiet today.

EMAIL ME !!! anytime