BUT ISN'T THAT GREAT, CAUSE I KNOW EXACTLY WHERE TO SHORT USO
If you can't see on the chart where OIL tops out, then I just don't know what i'm going to do about you...
zee
USO play the USO NOV 74 or if they add NOV 76 /78 PUTS...play those,,, play the highest put they will / open up / give you
or play the highest dec put they will give you when USO reaches 74 / 74.6
AND DO YOU know what a downtrending crude oil price does to XLE...It tops out XLE....so XLE is very very close to a Q3 top
OCT 28 2007
IF you want to know how to trade SMH and XHB go here and look at these charts
http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/
I got a feeling XLE, PXE is range bound...i noticed SMH, went into a long peiod between sept and april, where it had spent most of it’s political capital. (i.E. eps trend)
And XLE / PXE looks to be entering into the same bit...difference is eventually XLE is going to add in 15% gain in crude oil prices past month, but probably does that Q4, so won’t show up till late dec/JAN 08, SO PROBABLY pxe / xle DOES NOT BREAK OUT Significantly, like logic says it should
zee
OCT 27 , 2007
I just had no intention of looking at the PXE chart, because i clicked on PXE tonight, and the chart shows one of two things
PXE backs down to 23 and then goes to 30, cause high crude oil and interest rate cuts are here to stay.. In fact crude is up about 20% so if add 20% to 25 last PXE high then i get 29/30
Or PXE is finished at 25 and XLE is about to tank back down to 20
IF XLE tanks then Market tanks
Jeeze louise, i better keep my eye on the QQQQ as fortune 8 said to do and if it breaks out above 54.3 and higher then look for PXE to go to 29/30
Otherwise we are at some weird kind of market top for XLE, and if XLE goes down, then SPY goes down
COT report is NUETRAL to slightly bullish...so no new LOWS
gary LOOKS AT THE cot REPORT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THAN ME
Long us treasury
Short 2/5/10 yr
GOLD short 3 to 1 = nuetral..
DJIA = 50/50 , SO QQQQ top remains 54
CME short format, options and futures combined
CANADA $ = short 4 to 1= short canada stocks = wrong, cause canada stocks went up for the week, and last week had these exact same readings
S&P 500 stocks...slightly bullish = 51/49
NASDAQ 100 = slightly bullish 55/45
IWM russel 2k = slightly bullish 55/45
Nikkei = long
S&P GSCI = GSG = 75% oil slightly bearish 45/55 .. doesn't make sense, cause the pits say $100 oil is coming
CBOE short format , futures and options combined
VIX = nuetral = 50/50 = no significant changes, in market direction
KCBT
N/A
MGE
N/A
CEI
Silver = short 2 to 1, however, non commercial , bullish 4 to 1
Copper = 50/50
Gold = 3 to 1 short , however, non commercial, bullish 15 to 1 = volatility, probably to the upside
ICE short format
USD LONG 5 TO 1 = DIA UP slightly to nuetral, non commercial = bearish 4 to 1 = NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NYME
Heating oil = short, non commercial = long
NAT GAS = slightly bullish, no significant changes
HENRY HUB = short slightly = no changes
CENTRAL APPALACHIAN COAL = nuetral = no significant changes
CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET = slightly bearish = no significant changes
GASOLINE BLENDSTOCK (RBOB) = slightly bearish , non commercial 5 to 1 bullish, so no significant changes gasoline
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
GO HERE TO SEE A NICE WEEKLY CHART ON MEE
NICE site
http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/
looks real good
YOU'LL SEE ON tb'S CHART THAT mee ALWAYS FAILS AT THE 200 DAY WEEKLY
i thought it just failed the last three times on my chart, but on TB's chart it has failed every time
MEE OPTION LESSON
NEVER buy an option once it's under $1.00
RULE NUMBER ONE
NEVER EVER BUY AN OPTION UNDER $1.00
as soon as option went to 0.90 you should have sold it...and got rid of it
next time switch time frame
...my god for an extra fifty you buy yourself a whole dang month
hold on to your MEE NOV 30 PUTS and buy some DEC 30 PUTS if MEE hasn't gapped down MONDAY
if MEE is gapped down then get out at 1.10 / 1.00... GET OUT
never buy under 0.90
under 0.90 expires worthless fast...very fast...faster than a speeding bullet...
AND MEE HAS NEVER EVER STAYED ABOVE ITS 200 DAY WEEKLY EVER AND NEVER WILL
AND ACI another COAL company...remember i said short all the COAL companies...well ACI was down 3% in AH...and with any luck..three other sectors will fail on MONDAY = ( solar, nat gas,XLE, and COAL)....
and COT is NUETRAL...means VIX might win one of the days next week, and we get a 200 point drop...well that's a dip
and you MUST BUY ON THE DIPS
zee
there are no crashes...any one tells you there will be a crash get as far away from them as possible...they are poison... they will poison all your profits... we may retest 135 on the DIA next week, but then that's a DIP...YOU MUST BUY ON THE DIP>>>>buy DIA NOV 133 calls IF DIA at 135 NEXT WEEK
ZION GETS TO 63 / 64 FAST...INTEREST RATE COMING OCT 30 /31.. SO YOU BETTER HURRY...THIS IS THE LAST SOLID BANKING INSTITUTE STILL LAGGING THAT I COULD FIND
BUY NOW ...MAY EVEN GET TO LAST LOWS AT $67 / 68.. EVENTUALLY MAKES IT BACK TO 200 DAY...AT $76.8 BUT THAT'S LONGER TERM...JAN 08 OR MAY 08...POSSIBLY...
OCT 27, 2007
WTC = worldwide trading capital
$5,000 gets you full daytrading priveledges..it’ll cost you though...minimum $300 a month / 8%, but you can trade at 10 to 1 leverage, so a $5,000 balance puts $50,000 into your trading account...but at 8% fees, that’s like a loan for $45,000 at 8%, which ain’t bad....
http://www.worldwidetradingcapital.com/faq-top.asp
13 comments:
Z,
appreciate your fundamental analysis. I put together a chart of ticker MEE. I see a "fake out break out" in the works.
tb
www.traderbean.blogspot.com
http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/
hey TB
NICE site
http://www.traderbean.blogspot.com/
looks real good
pundits say crude headed to $100 easy
and with interest rates cut coming i'd say that's a sure bet
also MEE missed earnings by 7 cents...they will get punished MONDAY
and ACI another coal company was down 3% in AH...so false breakout again...MEE just seems to breakdown every single time at the 200 weekly
it's like free money
zee
STEVE S
you bought the wrong option
NEVER buy an option once it's under $1.00
RULE NUMBER ONE
NEVER EVER BUY AN OPTION UNDER $1.00
as soon as option went to 0.90 you should have sold it...and got rid of it
and switched to the next time frame
which is DEC 30 at 1.40...my god for an extra fifty you buy youself a whold dang month
never pass that up in the future....
zee
Hi Z-
Curious about your business on Prosper.
sj
Zee,
You're right i screwed up, should have gone higher or further out. You've told me this before and i went and did it anyway. Won't happen again.
Thanks for the extra info on MEE from yourself and Traderbean.
steve s
Z
your blogstop is fantastic very helpful and easily understood you are the man who can call the markets!!!!
Its saturday night
and ive been studying charts and articles all day
and ended up 50/50 for my efforts
the market either stays in a narrow range
or the DIA goes to 14,100 this week
and sets up QQQQ to go to new yearly high
zee
so everybody has to pick....
i don't like two outcomes...
but there are two outcomes
to next week
so im getting flip floppy, it happens
F8... if you read this you are partially responsible ( good find on that bollinger signal qqqq breakout attempt), and gary is the other person, thinks this week is going to go up
Z,
take a look at my PXE analysis. Chart shows more upside potential.
What stocks show the greatest potential in the PXE, if we indeed move higher here?
Z,
Thanks for the credit; however, it is too soon to tell.
I want to share with you some information on Money Flow from WSJ Market Data Group.
Money Flows: Buying on Weakness
Friday, October 26, 2007 - 5:18 pm ET
Among stocks that are down today, these have the largest inflow of money. Figures are updated hourly between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., eastern time. Money flows are calculated as the dollar value of composite uptick trades minus the dollar value of downtick trades. The up/down ratio reflects the value of uptick trades relative to the value of downtick trades. Money flow, uptick and downtick volume are in millions of US dollars. Percent change is calculated from the prior day 4 p.m., eastern time, closing price.
Guess what? QID is #2 on the list.
Money Flows: Buying on Weakness
QQQQ
Weekly chart:
BB(13) = 56.0,45.6
Daily chart:
BB(13) = 54.3,52.2
Last = 53.93
QID
Weekly chart:
BB(13) = 49.4,31.2
Daily chart:
BB(13) = 37.6,34.9
Last = 35.26
QLD
Weekly chart:
BB(13) = 126.5,85.6
Daily chart:
BB(13) = 119.11,111.5
Last = 117.58
F8
you lost me
is QID a #2 short or a #2 buy
OOZZE, steve,
MEE
might kill me, but they did miss by 7 cents, so up less than 2%, that is not stopped out...
so bail if MEE up more than 2% monday morning,
if you see USO hit 74.6 intraday, then HOLD MEE puts,
because that's the short sell signal = 95% chance of success
MY USO chart tells exactly when to short XLE =MEE
TB..MY uso chart says short XLE at USO = 74.6
so daytrade XOM going up or OXY
BUT USO hits 74.6, monday...XLE will start coming down right away, may even finish Monday in the red
( doubtful)
Z,
While the stocks were going down, the money was flowing in.
#1 DISCA
#2 QID
#3 ALTR
and so forth.
Did you check out the page?
Z,
Created a blog just for fun.
http://fade-me.blogspot.com/
Don't know how long I will be doing this.
QQQQ
Day's Range:53.84 - 54.33
Last Trade:54.16
QLD
Day's Range:117.50 - 119.49
Last Trade:118.68
QID
Day's Range:34.81 - 35.42
Last Trade:35.05
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