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http://www.beanieville.blogspot.com/

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THEN YOU MISSED ALL THESE BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

NULL

TDW is at the 100 day = 54.3 = BUY NOW

2007 eps is 6.40

2008 eps is 7.18

$6.40 going up to 7.18 = 12%

there fore TDW trades at 12x earnings

$6.40 x 12 = 76.8 new target price

If you want to swing trade use the TDW DEC 50 call, hold 3 to 10 days

If you want to hold till DEC, buy the DEC 60 call

If you want to make / lose really fast money buy the NOV 55 call

OOZZE closed out MEE, shorts,

ABK, $60 long term target...some sort of bond insurance company, with sub prime exposure..but tremendous profits 24% revenue growth per year...at 39.8 now.. and interest rate cut sends ABK to $45 fast, and eventually $60

Interest rate cut play, another Hot bank

EWBC small LA ca bank japanese only...uses 10.6x multiple of 2008 eps ( =

bullish)

short term target is weekly 200 day at 35.5 then 38 then new yearly high $42

rev Q3 report up 16%

today is the LOW...

it's at this low price because of uncertaintity about LA housing...well LA is 1 million houses short, next 5 years

Man beannie sure knows tech

BRCM did go down, just like he said it would

BRCM at 32 with a very very bullish SLOW sto BUY SIGNAL

32 = two and three bottom last three times..32 = 26% drop off the last high= i doubt BRCM can go any lower..and RSI 30.9 = my favorite buy signal

zee

I missed entry IIIN by $4

$15 down to $11

so I’m gonna try again buying the dec 10 call and hope IIIN can get to $15

zee

Z’s short hand AGU Translates to

AGU made 2.91.. 2007

and will make 3.51.. in 2008

So i take 2.91 and i add ( ADD) 22% AND I GET 3.51

so 22 is the growth rate

( 3.51 is 2008 eps estimate, which is at Yahoo)

Now i take current eps (2007 eps = 2.91)

and multiply by [22 = (growth rate eps year to year 2007 to 2008)]

and i get $64

= target price on a book value growth basis...

Then i read last earnings report and revueues jumped 60%...q3 report...so $64 might be too low, because yahoo will change 2007/2008 eps estimates higher

IN Z-SHORTHAND

DRYS

8.92/15.01=69*

498/743=49*

8.92+69*=150.7

8.92+49*=132

short sell at 150 or 132

LONG HAND

DRYS

2007 eps 8.92 going up to 2008 eps 15.07 = 69% eps growth

if i take 8.92 and multiply by 69, i get 150.7 new target price

zee

so i think today was a buying opporutunity

DRYS down $19 today

OR

2007 rev = 498m

2008 revunue = 743m

that’s a 49% revenue growth year to year in revenue

so i take 2007 eps of 8.92 and add 49% and that = 132.9, and DRYS keeps failing at 132

eventually the market will have to DEAL with EPS GROWTH, ( and not revenue growth)

so DRYS reaches $150.7, just don’t know when

zee

OCT 30

BOTH make $1,000 if DRYS makes it back to 130

NOV 90 call = spend $2,240

Or 50 shares at 100 / 108 = spend $5,000

Better off just buying 50shares, instead of a call position...

Or speculation

Play the NOV 130 calls

Possible triple money, if DRYS reaches 130 before 5 to 8 days

Jonszynmanski

DRYS

I just knew i was going to have to give calculator lessons.

No fear it took me two years to figure this out.

Enter 8.92

Then hit plus key on calculator

THEN enter 69

Then hit % key on calculator

=1507

zee

J

oh my god i

didn't even do / explain that second part right

i don't know how to do or explain the second part

i just take 892 hit plus key

enter 69

hit % key and

and i get 1507.45

and i round that off into

z-dollars?

and get $150

i'm doing part one.... twice

god am i stupid?

well thanks for pointing that out

i can do these things even faster now

zee

so in fact, that's a great argument against DRYS getting to $150 this quarter...

it'll have to be next quarter

so DRYS PRICE is based on REVENUE GROWTH X 2007 eps estimate

so lets see how much they drop rates

as a percentage of past rates

multiply that by 4 and that equals the NEW BUY PRICE.

example

lets say they drop rates by 8%

multiply by 4 = 32%

so 32% lower than 131 ish

= next entry price

i'll buy that...

zee

IN FACT, it’s impossible for DRYS to get to $150 NEXT Q, unless they raise REVENUE GROWTH FROM 49% UP TO 69% , IN THE NEXT THIRTY / 60 DAYS

ZEE

## 5 comments:

Z, closed you MEE short? Its just getting started!

tb

tb

i just knew you were going to say that..

i actually flipped a coin, 7 tails, three heads, to figure out what to do..

so i decided to sell 3/4 of my position

zee

booked 55% profit

zee

i bought the highly speculative NOV 30 puts, that's before i realized, i should have bought the less speculative DEC 30 puts...

jeeze i can't even follow my own rules

never buy an option under $1.00

bought 0.65 / 0.70 sold 1.05/1.10

major bull market building into the end of the year,,,,be there or be square.......

Mac

ok, I grabbed the DEC 30's. Still holding...profit is profit...

tb

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