Tuesday, October 30, 2007

I'M AT BEANNIES in the morning

IF YOU WEREN'T HERE
http://www.beanieville.blogspot.com/
bEANNIES SITE
THEN YOU MISSED ALL THESE BUY RECOMMENDATIONS


NULL
TDW is at the 100 day = 54.3 = BUY NOW
2007 eps is 6.40
2008 eps is 7.18
$6.40 going up to 7.18 = 12%
there fore TDW trades at 12x earnings
$6.40 x 12 = 76.8 new target price
If you want to swing trade use the TDW DEC 50 call, hold 3 to 10 days
If you want to hold till DEC, buy the DEC 60 call
If you want to make / lose really fast money buy the NOV 55 call

OOZZE closed out MEE, shorts,
ABK, $60 long term target...some sort of bond insurance company, with sub prime exposure..but tremendous profits 24% revenue growth per year...at 39.8 now.. and interest rate cut sends ABK to $45 fast, and eventually $60

Interest rate cut play, another Hot bank
EWBC small LA ca bank japanese only...uses 10.6x multiple of 2008 eps ( =
bullish)
short term target is weekly 200 day at 35.5 then 38 then new yearly high $42
rev Q3 report up 16%
today is the LOW...
it's at this low price because of uncertaintity about LA housing...well LA is 1 million houses short, next 5 years

Man beannie sure knows tech
BRCM did go down, just like he said it would
BRCM at 32 with a very very bullish SLOW sto BUY SIGNAL
32 = two and three bottom last three times..32 = 26% drop off the last high= i doubt BRCM can go any lower..and RSI 30.9 = my favorite buy signal
zee


I missed entry IIIN by $4
$15 down to $11
so I’m gonna try again buying the dec 10 call and hope IIIN can get to $15
zee


Z’s short hand AGU Translates to
AGU made 2.91.. 2007
and will make 3.51.. in 2008
So i take 2.91 and i add ( ADD) 22% AND I GET 3.51
so 22 is the growth rate
( 3.51 is 2008 eps estimate, which is at Yahoo)
Now i take current eps (2007 eps = 2.91)
and multiply by [22 = (growth rate eps year to year 2007 to 2008)]
and i get $64
= target price on a book value growth basis...

Then i read last earnings report and revueues jumped 60%...q3 report...so $64 might be too low, because yahoo will change 2007/2008 eps estimates higher

IN Z-SHORTHAND
DRYS
8.92/15.01=69*
498/743=49*
8.92+69*=150.7
8.92+49*=132
short sell at 150 or 132

LONG HAND
DRYS
2007 eps 8.92 going up to 2008 eps 15.07 = 69% eps growth
if i take 8.92 and multiply by 69, i get 150.7 new target price
zee
so i think today was a buying opporutunity
DRYS down $19 today

OR
2007 rev = 498m
2008 revunue = 743m
that’s a 49% revenue growth year to year in revenue
so i take 2007 eps of 8.92 and add 49% and that = 132.9, and DRYS keeps failing at 132

eventually the market will have to DEAL with EPS GROWTH, ( and not revenue growth)
so DRYS reaches $150.7, just don’t know when
zee

OCT 30
BOTH make $1,000 if DRYS makes it back to 130
NOV 90 call = spend $2,240
Or 50 shares at 100 / 108 = spend $5,000
Better off just buying 50shares, instead of a call position...
Or speculation
Play the NOV 130 calls
Possible triple money, if DRYS reaches 130 before 5 to 8 days

Jonszynmanski
DRYS
I just knew i was going to have to give calculator lessons.
No fear it took me two years to figure this out.

Enter 8.92

Then hit plus key on calculator

THEN enter 69

Then hit % key on calculator

=1507
zee
J
oh my god i
didn't even do / explain that second part right

i don't know how to do or explain the second part

i just take 892 hit plus key
enter 69
hit % key and
and i get 1507.45
and i round that off into
z-dollars?
and get $150

i'm doing part one.... twice
god am i stupid?
well thanks for pointing that out
i can do these things even faster now
zee
so in fact, that's a great argument against DRYS getting to $150 this quarter...
it'll have to be next quarter
so DRYS PRICE is based on REVENUE GROWTH X 2007 eps estimate

so lets see how much they drop rates
as a percentage of past rates
multiply that by 4 and that equals the NEW BUY PRICE.

example
lets say they drop rates by 8%
multiply by 4 = 32%
so 32% lower than 131 ish
= next entry price
i'll buy that...
zee

IN FACT, it’s impossible for DRYS to get to $150 NEXT Q, unless they raise REVENUE GROWTH FROM 49% UP TO 69% , IN THE NEXT THIRTY / 60 DAYS



ZEE

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Z, closed you MEE short? Its just getting started!

tb

z-stock said...

tb
i just knew you were going to say that..
i actually flipped a coin, 7 tails, three heads, to figure out what to do..
so i decided to sell 3/4 of my position


zee

z-stock said...

booked 55% profit
zee
i bought the highly speculative NOV 30 puts, that's before i realized, i should have bought the less speculative DEC 30 puts...
jeeze i can't even follow my own rules
never buy an option under $1.00

bought 0.65 / 0.70 sold 1.05/1.10

Anonymous said...

major bull market building into the end of the year,,,,be there or be square.......

Mac

Anonymous said...

ok, I grabbed the DEC 30's. Still holding...profit is profit...

tb

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