Saturday, December 01, 2007

95% Certainty

95% Certainty

i started with CNQ...( Canadian natural Gas co) can i know when to buy this at the perfect entry price...I want to be within 0.25 cent...( see yesterdays blog and chart)

i started looking at qqqq
in aug...qqqq went from a low of 44.30 and shot up $4 move to now...NOV...qqqq bottomed at $48 and moved to $52 fast.= $4 fast ...same circumstances..mostly ( credit crucnch and sub-prime)...
aug pulled back $ ...
NOV... QQQQ seems like it will pull back...thank goodness there is a fib line at qqqq will pull back to 50.08 or 50.2

then I looked at UNG natural gas index...It has options..RSI 34...hmmmm...I would rather wait for RSI 30.99...and then you better buy this...$35 approximately...

NOW here’s the kicker...UPL has a huge 30/50 signal...go look at RIO on the 2 month stockcharts...and you’ll see how fast UPL is going to go up....
Luckily the market is in a general uptrend so the 30/50 BUY signal on UPL will work 95% to 100% of the time...There’s a substantial fibonnaci line at there’s the buy price...= $62.50

So..the 3 charts QQQQ UNG and UPL...are all extremely good buy signals...that haven’t quite happened yet...THUS the name of this blog “ What to trade next”

Now go look at beaten down GOLD stocks.....They are all in BUY position...but the buy price is not cut and dry in order to cure this problem...It seemed to me that UNG (nat gas) and GLD ( gold index) are probably going to bottom at the exact same time....
And if you knew what i knew about both these would immediately conclude...natural gas , gold and gasoline stocks are all going to bottom at the same time..probably within minutes of each other...

And the three BUY signals to ignite buying the other 50 companies in these UNG at RSI 30.99....QQQQ around 50ish ( probably) and UPL at 62.5...which (UPL) has a 95% effective buy signal....

Therefore i can tell you with 95% buy DVN,TSO,VLO,GG,GFI,ABX,APA,CNQ...and a few others ....
when UPL at 62.5 and UNG at RSI 30.99..and qqqq around the 50's...

if nothing should have learned just how much it takes to be 95% certain..when making a the stock market...
and guess what....I do this everyday.....people call it weird TA...i call it deep deep investigation....


  1. i stated previously that i'm paper trading till market makes more sense...well it makes p=erfect sense again.....
    i also said i was very bullish ISM...but qqqq technicals indicate a small ISM might be taken wrong by the MONDAY market could pull back or not...tough to call that...
    DEC 7th might hurt...75K employment report..

  2. Hey Zee... how are you? I'm holding a bunch of VMW shares (probably too many)...been buying down since about 110.00. I know it's jumped up 20 pts. in a week, but it's still below my cost basis. Where do you see this going through the end of the year?...Thanks....SKI

  3. Z,

    Strong support on UPL at 63.

    62.50 may be too early or too late since next support is at 61.

  4. DEC 1
    HERE”S a partial list of gold , natural gas, and XLE stocks....i keep records on...



    Natural gas


  5. F8
    UPL is 95% certainty =62.50 = HUGE BUY SIGNAL...fibonnaci line...and then rush up to $68 again....
    AND never bet against a 30/50 buy a market thats in a uptrend....z-rule #5 or so...

    i vmw'd out....i just know the target price is $135...100% chance you will see this price....

  6. I have looked at the stock. You can try to catch the bottom or you catch wave going up which might be forming.

    Check out my blog for my findings on 4,8,21 ema.

  7. 135 target is longer term.

    VMW still has to close and stay above 97.

    Don't make me take a cheeseburger from you.

  8. Z-

    So are you saying to put a limit buy order on UPL when it hits $62.50 or are you saying that when UPL hits $62.50 we should go long on one of these: DVN,TSO,VLO,GG,GFI,ABX,APA,CNQ.

    If the latter which stock would you recommend best?

  9. cheeseburger,

    beanie wager VMW would hit 120 before earnings - NOT.

    beanie double or nothing wager NASDAQ would close above 2700 on 11/30/2007 - NOT

  10. Z makes me laugh and here I will post my reason for UPL at 63 and not 62.50. This is not to say that UPL will not hit 62.50. But if it does, it can mean a bad thing.

    P&F Chart for UPL

    See how it ran to 64 twice and came back down? When it passed 64, it came back down to 64 and 63 for support.

    Now look at a regular chart. The low on UPL is 63 on 11/12.


    You don't want the stock to detiorate because it would be bad if it did. IMHO.

  11. Z

    GE bottom looks like a strong bottom at 34 which is above 52wk low of 53.90


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