Sunday, December 30, 2007

DIA futures,

Jan earnings season, might get 4% growth, and April earnings season might get 1% growth, Then July earnings season, might get (-5% growth) = 20% correction

There’s only so much the market can do, to help the banking stocks. Those stocks remain a real drag on the S&P.
The only really strong sectors are
XLV, (healthcare), XLI, ( industrials), and Tech.
These 3 sectors have a growth rate of (10%, Q4), so overall market is probably close to (Q4, Q1...= 4% eps growth ).---
or DOW = 14700, then recession for 2 quarters, sends the dow down to 11,700 or 20%.
( republicans get anniahlated 08 elections = 41 senate seats, don’t kill the messenger)

XLE at 84 in May / June is probably the short the market signal.
SO in the meantime, the DOW takes 7 months to climb 2000.
2 months ago DOW was at 12700 ( nov) and by the time May / june arrives ( =7 month period) the Dow should be at 14,700

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