Wednesday, December 12, 2007

DECEMBER 15 2008
SATURDAY


$RUT...The mother of all coin tosses...!!!...!!!...!!!
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THESE EVENTS...!!!...!!!...!!!
Earnings call
Tuesday... BBY 10....GS..8am...TUESDAY..
WEDnesday ...MS..-0.39 est...( other eps calls) NKE,CMC,JOYG
THURS..BSC..8am...FDX..RIMM..4/5 PM...(this is notable)..IPSU ($2.50) DIVIDEND..



TSO, VLO,FTO..Would be required to use 70% more ethanol over the next 8 years, in their gasoline ethanol blends....due to the energy bill....I think either way...the costs will get transfered to the consumer, so this should help refineries bottom line....so Maybe it’s possible TSO and VLO, might be heading to new yearly highs....i’m just guessing , though..so i’ll just wait for the first down day on TSO, before I sell my TSO calls....
The supply of ethanol to TSO is guarenteed, so I don’t know what this does to it’s stock price, but it doesn’t hurt...

spending side economics....baby side spending...The general concenses, have all types of cigarette tax, in the pipes, to fund non-insured, or subsidize, non insured...which if just GREAT for WLP,HNT,CI, and etc....
Imagine if these same general consensus A-type personalities, put this same effort, into other really stupid spending decisions ( baby- side economics), that other people have made, besides cigarette smokers.....
Here’s another good group to go after.....BELLS....people that make Bells, to be hung on the sides of interstates....I don’t mind if Pasadena or some such, want Bells hanging from their street signs or what not...but the person selling the bells to Pasadenan’s, need to be subjected to a 30% LEVY at point of sale, and have that Levy go directly to WLP,CI,and all the others, as a trust fund, to help the un-insured....or / and actually, to any other non-money making venture,
but that relieves the stresses, of some of this robotic owners get the money and the non- robotic owners get cold weather, type of current (Chicago-style)..economics...



DECEMBER 13, 2007
THURSDAY
MAR is a falling knife... buying the JAN 32.5 and 35 put for a swing play...07/08 eps is 1.90 / 2.30..that’s 21% growth...= 1.90x 21 =39.9 stock price...
And if there is a slow down then 2008 = 2.20 eps X 15% growth = $33 stock price...so MAR is right in between those two numbers....go figure....



WYN lowers outlook so wait till it hits RSI 25...i think it might....do that...



The whole IYR sector is a falling knife...so the pickings are far from slim...
zee


Here's the thing....I often refer to the hotel stocks to get a handle on when to buy LVS,MGM,WYNN..and IYR....the gambling stocks are duo - personality...sometimes they follow IYR /HOTEL and sometimes they follow HSI= hang seng...
so since FXI /HSI..is in a holding pattern...
IYR looks like a good BUY SIGNAL this time around for LVS and MGM and WYNN...
so when MAR and WYN, HOT too...
stop falling and form a support...guess where my money's going...
Not into MAR or WYN..it's going into MGM....you silly goose....

BKX is at $90 and $88 is a double bottom support....if bank index can hold at 88...might get a rally...With all the money BEN is pumping into international system...It had better HOLD...or else they'll have to FIRE BEN..!!!

Retail sales were up 0.6%...so that indicates there is no recession...so i have to watch out that the analysts don’t swing back to 2.5% growth on the SPY, instead of the minus 2.5%...they were using...



DECEMBER 12 2007
WEDNESDAY

Here's my case for a sinking economy....


I don't think Ben is working for the Clinton's, but you never know....
and you already know what the Clinton's can do to the economy...!!!!! They can leave a bubble there in 2016.....





The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.
***********************

***********************
Now that’s what i’m talking about,
when i say there has got be some spending side economics, introduced into the globabl economy....
Some-one spent $170K on a pair of Led –Zeppelin tickets...I’m not against someone paying that much for those tickets,
it’s just i call that baby-side spending, because that doesn’t help the general concern....
There has to be a spending side LEVY attached to that purchase of say 300% = $510K...
and the extra money / LEVY should go to a diverse group of transparent non-profits...
The responsibility of collecting and paying the LEVY should fall on the seller at the time of sale...
Someone spent $7 million on a Rolls ROYCE....= 100% LEVY....

This spending side economics, like many of my inventions, is sure to gain a foothold in popular lore.......
The Christian Right, has been waiting for an equation like this one, and now they have it......
GOOD LUCK if you are an overpaid CEO or out of control Corporation........
cause, I just ended your spending spree days....
You are welcome....
zee....

42 comments:

  1. Some-one spent $170K on a pair of Led –Zeppelin tickets.

    Radio station in San Diego was giving that away flights and hotels included.

    ReplyDelete
  2. It's politically incorrect to be against any plan that would help non- profits......
    that's why this thing is going to be a part of US folk lore....
    watch and learn.....
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  3. concerning GS...
    LEH reports in the morning ( 8 am)...and that might bring down the whole sector....
    zee
    or not....

    ReplyDelete
  4. AUSTIN...
    if you see LEH above the 200 day = 67 ish...around 68 / 69 or even less ...You must short that....
    i don't think it even gets above the 200 day...but even if it does it won't stay there for long in my opinion..

    ReplyDelete
  5. NSM running out of steam at its 100 day...might want to short this one...can’t get above it’s last lows of 25 or so....that’s a good bear signal....
    25.9= 200 day ...that’s a for sure short sell signal....
    RIMM is a buy...it bounced right off it’s 100 day at 97.5....
    SMH is really trying to get to it’s 200 day = 35...there might be some hoppe for the qqqq after all...
    SNE is a short at 57 / 58....RSI 70 is the signal....remember Japan has 0 GDP...forecast for 2008...
    SPY has really good support at 148.4...
    TXN is a short at the 200 day...= 34.0...or wait for RSI 69 around 35.5 then short....

    ReplyDelete
  6. $20 in AH
    it's aMUST BUY first thing in the morning....
    they decided not to sell themselves ...but who cares!!!!!!
    This is a mUST BUY situation....
    zee
    $58 = 200 day and thats the buy signal and its at $55 right now.....
    go figure...get a $3 discount right off the bat...wow...
    that's also going to put a real hurt on IBB and BBH....so you'll want to buy those too...when they settle down....
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  7. What is a must buy first thing in the morning? BIIB?

    ReplyDelete
  8. jason,
    good call....
    i forgot to put the ticker...
    BIIB...
    what do you think?
    a buy at $55, or will it start gapping up pre- market....?
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  9. THE ten top holdings OIH = 80% of the worth...is growing eps by an average of 27%...2007 to 2008...so i can give my first conservative target price = $200...at least...
    zee

    the only boner in the group is NBL which has flat eps 07/08....
    DO is 75% eps growth
    RIG is 41% eps growth
    and the average is about 23% for the rest ..
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  10. zstock: i catch the bottom about 60% of the time
    zstock: and the other 40% im close enough
    zstock: to still get out ahead
    zstock: that's why i'm pretty sure airline bottom was either today or tomorrow
    zstock: someone at beannies said retail reports tomorrow
    zstock: that might be a potential disaster
    zstock: have to watch WMT
    zstock: if that's down 4%
    zstock: it'll crash the whole market

    USO is going so high ..it's hurting airline stocks and if the retail report is mixed that hurts airlines....that's why i didn't jump into airlines to day
    but they are so low right now...that tomorrow i will start buying them
    i don't want to miss them when they go up 10% in one day like last time
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  11. no one bought my ZMH
    F8.. ic
    zstock: i caught the bottom at the exact minute, its posted here...
    zstock: its up $6 now

    zstock: its way to steep for the spy to go below that
    zstock: so 147.7 is good support
    F8: yes, but I wait for 152 to go short
    zstock: well actually i have 153.5625
    zstock: thats the last high 157.5 - 2.5% = 153 ish

    zstock: the analysts are using 2.5% contraction in Q4 eps for the SPY
    zstock: i think the reason they are using a negative number instead of a +2.5%
    zstock: is because all the bank losses
    zstock: are subtracting from the other sectors

    zstock: you ever hear of ITRI
    F8: yes,
    zstock: they are like SI in europe
    zstock: they are beaten down
    F8: let me check
    zstock: im going to figure out when to buy that
    zstock: i haven't looked at it in a long time

    zstock: someone at beannies said retail reports tomorrow
    zstock: that might be a potential disaster
    zstock: have to watch WMT
    zstock: if that's down 4%
    zstock: it'll crash the whole market
    F8: ok

    zstock: you ever hear of ITRI
    F8: yes,
    zstock: they are like SI in europe
    zstock: they are beaten down
    F8: let me check
    zstock: im going to figure out when to buy that
    zstock: i haven't looked at it in a long time
    zstock: they do sophisticated water metering
    F8: looks good
    zstock: so they are environmental company of sorts
    F8: missed the bottom around 73
    F8: retails is gonna get whacked, i had kss shorted but took profit too early
    zstock: itri is forming a corkscrew on its 200 day = 78.7
    zstock: it's above it's 200 day..so it wont go back below it
    zstock: so its a buy now
    F8: definitely going to keep eye on itri
    F8: see if i can catch that sucker at 79+ tmr
    zstock: you think i have it figured out right
    zstock: what are the bollingers?
    F8: pretty much
    zstock: its just a $6 downside
    zstock: and $50 upside
    zstock: hahahahaaaa
    F8: BB13 ..85.9,74.1
    F8: stock has a nice base at 75 too
    zstock: so better to wait for 75
    zstock: i hope this doesn't turn into another UPL..we waited for $63 and at $64 it shot up to $72...
    F8: i hear ya, may be nibble a little
    zstock: maybe i'll buy the JAN 85
    zstock: just to start nibbling
    F8: JAN 85 is only 3.30
    F8: 90 us 1.55
    zstock: JAN 90 is good
    F8: that sound dam cheap and only 5 pts away
    F8: 10 pts
    zstock: can you see the short term target?
    zstock: i can
    zstock: all good companies close the gap...it gapped at 100...so 100 is the short term target
    F8: back to 84 = 50ema
    F8: if that breaks 85, dam good
    zstock: yep
    zstock: its a break out above 85
    F8: but for 1.55 you cant lose
    zstock: yeah i think you are right
    zstock: even at 75 the 90 call goes to 0.90 or 0.80
    zstock: then buy the 75 call
    zstock: and wait
    F8: that is down .45 today too
    zstock: i don't think the 90 call ever goes to 0.80 even if ITRI goes to 75
    F8: because there is stil time, definitely putting this on radar

    ReplyDelete
  12. BUYING ITRI JAN 90 CALL...1.05 GTC....
    WOW...
    ZEE
    ITRI gets to 75 / 76 will also buy the DEC or JAN 75 call....

    ReplyDelete
  13. Buyin TSO JAN 47.5 and 45 calls 1.60 for the 47.5 call...VLO another gas company is in a corkscrew pattern, so this group is probably set to go higher...
    Buying CAL ,UAUA,
    CCJ is a total loss...can’t decide if its time to add more or wait one more day...before adding the JAN 35...

    ReplyDelete
  14. SPY is a toss- up, stuck right at it's 200 day....148.2
    BBIB sure is tempting, it has a hollow red bull hammer...thats been a good buy signal in the past....JAN 60 calls 2.15...missed the 1.10 entry... it’ll have to gap up for the call to move..or buy the JAN 55 call...

    ReplyDelete
  15. Z,

    Thanks for protecting my identity.

    ReplyDelete
  16. wow biib puts killed today

    ReplyDelete
  17. F8
    the readers here are always asking for more options training, and i think we pretty much covered how to trade a high flyer like ITRI...
    it was just easy to copy and paste the whole thing...
    thanks....

    on high flyers ....
    what ever target price looks possible to reach...that option strike will be active....

    did you see my CCJ calls??
    i got killed on them...
    If CCJ is down tomorrow...I'm backing in the truck...cause i can just tell
    today or tomorrow is the LOW for DEC...

    ReplyDelete
  18. Zee,
    Can you take a stab at the fundamentals for AMGN and see if you can guesstimate a bottom for this stock? I have been in the VMW since the corkscrew, thanks so much for that, it was a real winner! -Mike C

    ReplyDelete
  19. M.
    AMGN
    is HOT....
    i see that at 48.3 = 2 bottom and i'm backing the truck in....
    I have two short term targets....
    52 is the bottom of the gap down...and then there's the 200 day = 56ish...it's impossible for Amgn not to test $56..= 200 day...
    and then there's 3 rd target = last monthly high $59.0.....
    Z.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Zee,

    Thanks for doing that analysis. Im diggin the dbl bottom also, just trying to think of where it would go if it broke through that support line. Thanks again dude!

    MIke C

    ReplyDelete
  21. Nice find on AMGN.

    BIIB -- 65$ target?

    ReplyDelete
  22. zstock: BAC ---it's impossible for it to go below 41
    zstock: at $41 BAC dividend yeild goes to 7%
    zstock: C already at 7%
    although C will probably cut it's dividend....
    so its not a dividend play like BAC is....
    i see BAC in the $41's and i'm buying....
    Not only am I buying, that's a signal that XLF has bottomed and a short market rally will follow....
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  23. based on my BAC analysis, it's almost safe to say....
    I should go bet that shawnr
    a 100,000 latte's that qqqq finishes higher thatn 51.5 year end...
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  24. i have no idea what BIIB is going to do next
    with my luck,,,it'll probably be the one that got away....
    zee
    maybe it will corkscrew / consolidate.....and then i can get in....
    zee
    if it does a TSL...goes straight back up, that'll just mess me up!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  25. RIMM reports on dec 20
    im buying the JAN 125 call ahead of earnings and praying they hit their target price of $130 or $145...
    depending which pundit's target price... is the most accurate...
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  26. M.
    if AMGN breaks below that 49 ish support , then all that money is going into someone else's pocket...
    i'm sure the entry price is close enough...to recoup any short term loss....eventual target is $56....and $59...
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  27. The VIX is getting ready to test 21.6...= 200 day...and there’s an outside chance it can test it in a one day period, which would mean the dow up 300 in one day...VIX is definitely in a down trend, that It can’t break out of...

    So based on VIX.....i’d have to go with QQQQ closes above 51.5....by dec 31...so if i were betting shawnr...
    He’d have to put up
    $1/20 K.., and i would do the same and it’s Texas holdem style ....winner take all....

    FXI is coming down... maybe to the 100 day = 170= BUY signal..CHINESE....

    IWM target is 81.9..and seems to be in an uptrend...81.9...i figured that out by taking 84 and minusing 2.5% ( eps slow down estimate)...

    ATTENTION...!!!!!
    QID IS A SHORT SELL...!!!!!!!
    there is a very strong short sell signal, on the QID......
    too bad...i'm posting this so late at night...everyone will miss this post.....oh well too bad.....
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  28. Z,

    12/14/2007 09:33 AM
    $-531.50
    Bought 5 IUPAR@ $1.05

    Now going after $0.65

    ReplyDelete
  29. +CCJAU@1.50

    Some lucky bastard got it at 1.35.

    ReplyDelete
  30. if you look at the bank stocks the way i do....then, WHY are they coming in LOW / finding major support ... right before GS,BSC,and MS report earnings next week....i smell a bear.. trap.....those three are going to report ...they are in complete control of the dominion...and send the dow up 300 points....
    mark my words...I've seen this before...
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  31. f8
    what's IUPAR?
    i don't have any way to look up / sort..option ticker symbols....its just easier to go to options express and look at the strike...

    ReplyDelete
  32. DOW 30 stocks...there’s not too much there that can bring the DOW down...going into next week...the beaten down stuff...looks like it’s ready to spring back...and the high stuff looks like it can just go higher...
    INTC, JPM, look like buy now...IBM looks bullish..HD = 2 bot..

    ReplyDelete
  33. SOLD MAR PUTS...one day..130% gain....
    TSO calls up 60% and counting
    broke thru the all important 47.5 barrier..now the sky is the limit....this is a probable 300% gain...J50C and Jan 47.5 calls...
    zee

    ReplyDelete
  34. ITRI Jan 2008 90.0000 call (OPR:IUPAR.X)

    ReplyDelete
  35. JOHN
    Here’s a target price page i found
    I never use it, but i’m going to start keeping info on it and see if it’s any good...

    http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/calendar/ratings/current.asp

    DIS is growing 11% a year and this site gives DIS a $39 target...I’d say thats pretty accurate...

    ReplyDelete
  36. I'm going to keep posting Baby-side economics, until everyone here gets it....



    Later in this series, I'll introduce the Adult- side Economics....
    That's the other part of this Spending - Side Economics PLAN...

    ReplyDelete
  37. F8
    GOOD ARTICLE

    DEC 15
    Recently, the PBW fund raised its stake in Itron...(ITRI)...
    ....
    Well well well...ITRI is a part of PBW, just as I suspected....
    zee
    You guys reading this post...you had better hurry up and BUY the JAN 80 / 85 / 90 ITRI calls....
    short term target price = 90 to 100
    I'm pretty sure ITRI won't be retesting 74, last lows...
    79 = 200 day...and ITRI is managing to stay bullish,,,which is staying above the 200 day...
    any dips below the 200 day...is a signal to add more to the position...not less...

    ReplyDelete
  38. just you mind this..
    THE ITRI JAN 90 CALL..is a potential 10X gainer...$100 up to $1000....
    zee
    and i give this a slightly better than 50/50 chance of happening...

    ReplyDelete
  39. TK said""""
    The VIX is kind of LOW?????"""
    ******************************
    Who came up with that analysis?????
    The Vix is kind of HIGH...!!!...!!!
    but then i guess it comes down to
    Glass is half full or half empty...!!!...!!!
    Anyway....$RUT 735...
    that's either the Greatest BUY signal EVER...!!!...!!!
    OR...it's doom...doom...doom...
    zee
    or as I like to put it...
    "The mother of all coin tosses"...!!!...!!!

    ReplyDelete
  40. drnova911: TSO!!
    zstock: might go to new yearly high
    zstock: energy bill was very favorable to refineries to upgrade to ethanol blends
    zstock: so now TSO has gov't backing
    zstock: i'll just hold until TSO has first down day which might be never
    zstock: ill be keeping my eye on VSE and AVR and PEIX
    zstock: if those three start weaking
    zstock: that might match TSO VLO
    zstock: so that might be another sell signal for TSO

    ReplyDelete
  41. Read, watch, understand:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/22263816

    ReplyDelete

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