Wednesday, December 12, 2007

DECEMBER 15 2008
SATURDAY


$RUT...The mother of all coin tosses...!!!...!!!...!!!
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THESE EVENTS...!!!...!!!...!!!
Earnings call
Tuesday... BBY 10....GS..8am...TUESDAY..
WEDnesday ...MS..-0.39 est...( other eps calls) NKE,CMC,JOYG
THURS..BSC..8am...FDX..RIMM..4/5 PM...(this is notable)..IPSU ($2.50) DIVIDEND..



TSO, VLO,FTO..Would be required to use 70% more ethanol over the next 8 years, in their gasoline ethanol blends....due to the energy bill....I think either way...the costs will get transfered to the consumer, so this should help refineries bottom line....so Maybe it’s possible TSO and VLO, might be heading to new yearly highs....i’m just guessing , though..so i’ll just wait for the first down day on TSO, before I sell my TSO calls....
The supply of ethanol to TSO is guarenteed, so I don’t know what this does to it’s stock price, but it doesn’t hurt...

spending side economics....baby side spending...The general concenses, have all types of cigarette tax, in the pipes, to fund non-insured, or subsidize, non insured...which if just GREAT for WLP,HNT,CI, and etc....
Imagine if these same general consensus A-type personalities, put this same effort, into other really stupid spending decisions ( baby- side economics), that other people have made, besides cigarette smokers.....
Here’s another good group to go after.....BELLS....people that make Bells, to be hung on the sides of interstates....I don’t mind if Pasadena or some such, want Bells hanging from their street signs or what not...but the person selling the bells to Pasadenan’s, need to be subjected to a 30% LEVY at point of sale, and have that Levy go directly to WLP,CI,and all the others, as a trust fund, to help the un-insured....or / and actually, to any other non-money making venture,
but that relieves the stresses, of some of this robotic owners get the money and the non- robotic owners get cold weather, type of current (Chicago-style)..economics...



DECEMBER 13, 2007
THURSDAY
MAR is a falling knife... buying the JAN 32.5 and 35 put for a swing play...07/08 eps is 1.90 / 2.30..that’s 21% growth...= 1.90x 21 =39.9 stock price...
And if there is a slow down then 2008 = 2.20 eps X 15% growth = $33 stock price...so MAR is right in between those two numbers....go figure....



WYN lowers outlook so wait till it hits RSI 25...i think it might....do that...



The whole IYR sector is a falling knife...so the pickings are far from slim...
zee


Here's the thing....I often refer to the hotel stocks to get a handle on when to buy LVS,MGM,WYNN..and IYR....the gambling stocks are duo - personality...sometimes they follow IYR /HOTEL and sometimes they follow HSI= hang seng...
so since FXI /HSI..is in a holding pattern...
IYR looks like a good BUY SIGNAL this time around for LVS and MGM and WYNN...
so when MAR and WYN, HOT too...
stop falling and form a support...guess where my money's going...
Not into MAR or WYN..it's going into MGM....you silly goose....

BKX is at $90 and $88 is a double bottom support....if bank index can hold at 88...might get a rally...With all the money BEN is pumping into international system...It had better HOLD...or else they'll have to FIRE BEN..!!!

Retail sales were up 0.6%...so that indicates there is no recession...so i have to watch out that the analysts don’t swing back to 2.5% growth on the SPY, instead of the minus 2.5%...they were using...



DECEMBER 12 2007
WEDNESDAY

Here's my case for a sinking economy....


I don't think Ben is working for the Clinton's, but you never know....
and you already know what the Clinton's can do to the economy...!!!!! They can leave a bubble there in 2016.....





The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.
***********************

***********************
Now that’s what i’m talking about,
when i say there has got be some spending side economics, introduced into the globabl economy....
Some-one spent $170K on a pair of Led –Zeppelin tickets...I’m not against someone paying that much for those tickets,
it’s just i call that baby-side spending, because that doesn’t help the general concern....
There has to be a spending side LEVY attached to that purchase of say 300% = $510K...
and the extra money / LEVY should go to a diverse group of transparent non-profits...
The responsibility of collecting and paying the LEVY should fall on the seller at the time of sale...
Someone spent $7 million on a Rolls ROYCE....= 100% LEVY....

This spending side economics, like many of my inventions, is sure to gain a foothold in popular lore.......
The Christian Right, has been waiting for an equation like this one, and now they have it......
GOOD LUCK if you are an overpaid CEO or out of control Corporation........
cause, I just ended your spending spree days....
You are welcome....
zee....

42 comments:

fortune8 said...

Some-one spent $170K on a pair of Led –Zeppelin tickets.

Radio station in San Diego was giving that away flights and hotels included.

z-stock said...

It's politically incorrect to be against any plan that would help non- profits......
that's why this thing is going to be a part of US folk lore....
watch and learn.....
zee

z-stock said...

concerning GS...
LEH reports in the morning ( 8 am)...and that might bring down the whole sector....
zee
or not....

z-stock said...

AUSTIN...
if you see LEH above the 200 day = 67 ish...around 68 / 69 or even less ...You must short that....
i don't think it even gets above the 200 day...but even if it does it won't stay there for long in my opinion..

z-stock said...

NSM running out of steam at its 100 day...might want to short this one...can’t get above it’s last lows of 25 or so....that’s a good bear signal....
25.9= 200 day ...that’s a for sure short sell signal....
RIMM is a buy...it bounced right off it’s 100 day at 97.5....
SMH is really trying to get to it’s 200 day = 35...there might be some hoppe for the qqqq after all...
SNE is a short at 57 / 58....RSI 70 is the signal....remember Japan has 0 GDP...forecast for 2008...
SPY has really good support at 148.4...
TXN is a short at the 200 day...= 34.0...or wait for RSI 69 around 35.5 then short....

z-stock said...

$20 in AH
it's aMUST BUY first thing in the morning....
they decided not to sell themselves ...but who cares!!!!!!
This is a mUST BUY situation....
zee
$58 = 200 day and thats the buy signal and its at $55 right now.....
go figure...get a $3 discount right off the bat...wow...
that's also going to put a real hurt on IBB and BBH....so you'll want to buy those too...when they settle down....
zee

Jason said...

What is a must buy first thing in the morning? BIIB?

z-stock said...

jason,
good call....
i forgot to put the ticker...
BIIB...
what do you think?
a buy at $55, or will it start gapping up pre- market....?
zee

z-stock said...

THE ten top holdings OIH = 80% of the worth...is growing eps by an average of 27%...2007 to 2008...so i can give my first conservative target price = $200...at least...
zee

the only boner in the group is NBL which has flat eps 07/08....
DO is 75% eps growth
RIG is 41% eps growth
and the average is about 23% for the rest ..
zee

z-stock said...

zstock: i catch the bottom about 60% of the time
zstock: and the other 40% im close enough
zstock: to still get out ahead
zstock: that's why i'm pretty sure airline bottom was either today or tomorrow
zstock: someone at beannies said retail reports tomorrow
zstock: that might be a potential disaster
zstock: have to watch WMT
zstock: if that's down 4%
zstock: it'll crash the whole market

USO is going so high ..it's hurting airline stocks and if the retail report is mixed that hurts airlines....that's why i didn't jump into airlines to day
but they are so low right now...that tomorrow i will start buying them
i don't want to miss them when they go up 10% in one day like last time
zee

z-stock said...

no one bought my ZMH
F8.. ic
zstock: i caught the bottom at the exact minute, its posted here...
zstock: its up $6 now

zstock: its way to steep for the spy to go below that
zstock: so 147.7 is good support
F8: yes, but I wait for 152 to go short
zstock: well actually i have 153.5625
zstock: thats the last high 157.5 - 2.5% = 153 ish

zstock: the analysts are using 2.5% contraction in Q4 eps for the SPY
zstock: i think the reason they are using a negative number instead of a +2.5%
zstock: is because all the bank losses
zstock: are subtracting from the other sectors

zstock: you ever hear of ITRI
F8: yes,
zstock: they are like SI in europe
zstock: they are beaten down
F8: let me check
zstock: im going to figure out when to buy that
zstock: i haven't looked at it in a long time

zstock: someone at beannies said retail reports tomorrow
zstock: that might be a potential disaster
zstock: have to watch WMT
zstock: if that's down 4%
zstock: it'll crash the whole market
F8: ok

zstock: you ever hear of ITRI
F8: yes,
zstock: they are like SI in europe
zstock: they are beaten down
F8: let me check
zstock: im going to figure out when to buy that
zstock: i haven't looked at it in a long time
zstock: they do sophisticated water metering
F8: looks good
zstock: so they are environmental company of sorts
F8: missed the bottom around 73
F8: retails is gonna get whacked, i had kss shorted but took profit too early
zstock: itri is forming a corkscrew on its 200 day = 78.7
zstock: it's above it's 200 day..so it wont go back below it
zstock: so its a buy now
F8: definitely going to keep eye on itri
F8: see if i can catch that sucker at 79+ tmr
zstock: you think i have it figured out right
zstock: what are the bollingers?
F8: pretty much
zstock: its just a $6 downside
zstock: and $50 upside
zstock: hahahahaaaa
F8: BB13 ..85.9,74.1
F8: stock has a nice base at 75 too
zstock: so better to wait for 75
zstock: i hope this doesn't turn into another UPL..we waited for $63 and at $64 it shot up to $72...
F8: i hear ya, may be nibble a little
zstock: maybe i'll buy the JAN 85
zstock: just to start nibbling
F8: JAN 85 is only 3.30
F8: 90 us 1.55
zstock: JAN 90 is good
F8: that sound dam cheap and only 5 pts away
F8: 10 pts
zstock: can you see the short term target?
zstock: i can
zstock: all good companies close the gap...it gapped at 100...so 100 is the short term target
F8: back to 84 = 50ema
F8: if that breaks 85, dam good
zstock: yep
zstock: its a break out above 85
F8: but for 1.55 you cant lose
zstock: yeah i think you are right
zstock: even at 75 the 90 call goes to 0.90 or 0.80
zstock: then buy the 75 call
zstock: and wait
F8: that is down .45 today too
zstock: i don't think the 90 call ever goes to 0.80 even if ITRI goes to 75
F8: because there is stil time, definitely putting this on radar

z-stock said...

BUYING ITRI JAN 90 CALL...1.05 GTC....
WOW...
ZEE
ITRI gets to 75 / 76 will also buy the DEC or JAN 75 call....

z-stock said...

Buyin TSO JAN 47.5 and 45 calls 1.60 for the 47.5 call...VLO another gas company is in a corkscrew pattern, so this group is probably set to go higher...
Buying CAL ,UAUA,
CCJ is a total loss...can’t decide if its time to add more or wait one more day...before adding the JAN 35...

z-stock said...

SPY is a toss- up, stuck right at it's 200 day....148.2
BBIB sure is tempting, it has a hollow red bull hammer...thats been a good buy signal in the past....JAN 60 calls 2.15...missed the 1.10 entry... it’ll have to gap up for the call to move..or buy the JAN 55 call...

fortune8 said...

Z,

Thanks for protecting my identity.

Austin said...

wow biib puts killed today

z-stock said...

F8
the readers here are always asking for more options training, and i think we pretty much covered how to trade a high flyer like ITRI...
it was just easy to copy and paste the whole thing...
thanks....

on high flyers ....
what ever target price looks possible to reach...that option strike will be active....

did you see my CCJ calls??
i got killed on them...
If CCJ is down tomorrow...I'm backing in the truck...cause i can just tell
today or tomorrow is the LOW for DEC...

Michael said...

Zee,
Can you take a stab at the fundamentals for AMGN and see if you can guesstimate a bottom for this stock? I have been in the VMW since the corkscrew, thanks so much for that, it was a real winner! -Mike C

z-stock said...

M.
AMGN
is HOT....
i see that at 48.3 = 2 bottom and i'm backing the truck in....
I have two short term targets....
52 is the bottom of the gap down...and then there's the 200 day = 56ish...it's impossible for Amgn not to test $56..= 200 day...
and then there's 3 rd target = last monthly high $59.0.....
Z.

Mike C said...

Zee,

Thanks for doing that analysis. Im diggin the dbl bottom also, just trying to think of where it would go if it broke through that support line. Thanks again dude!

MIke C

austin said...

Nice find on AMGN.

BIIB -- 65$ target?

z-stock said...

zstock: BAC ---it's impossible for it to go below 41
zstock: at $41 BAC dividend yeild goes to 7%
zstock: C already at 7%
although C will probably cut it's dividend....
so its not a dividend play like BAC is....
i see BAC in the $41's and i'm buying....
Not only am I buying, that's a signal that XLF has bottomed and a short market rally will follow....
zee

z-stock said...

based on my BAC analysis, it's almost safe to say....
I should go bet that shawnr
a 100,000 latte's that qqqq finishes higher thatn 51.5 year end...
zee

z-stock said...

i have no idea what BIIB is going to do next
with my luck,,,it'll probably be the one that got away....
zee
maybe it will corkscrew / consolidate.....and then i can get in....
zee
if it does a TSL...goes straight back up, that'll just mess me up!!!!!

z-stock said...

RIMM reports on dec 20
im buying the JAN 125 call ahead of earnings and praying they hit their target price of $130 or $145...
depending which pundit's target price... is the most accurate...
zee

z-stock said...

M.
if AMGN breaks below that 49 ish support , then all that money is going into someone else's pocket...
i'm sure the entry price is close enough...to recoup any short term loss....eventual target is $56....and $59...
zee

z-stock said...

The VIX is getting ready to test 21.6...= 200 day...and there’s an outside chance it can test it in a one day period, which would mean the dow up 300 in one day...VIX is definitely in a down trend, that It can’t break out of...

So based on VIX.....i’d have to go with QQQQ closes above 51.5....by dec 31...so if i were betting shawnr...
He’d have to put up
$1/20 K.., and i would do the same and it’s Texas holdem style ....winner take all....

FXI is coming down... maybe to the 100 day = 170= BUY signal..CHINESE....

IWM target is 81.9..and seems to be in an uptrend...81.9...i figured that out by taking 84 and minusing 2.5% ( eps slow down estimate)...

ATTENTION...!!!!!
QID IS A SHORT SELL...!!!!!!!
there is a very strong short sell signal, on the QID......
too bad...i'm posting this so late at night...everyone will miss this post.....oh well too bad.....
zee

fortune8 said...

Z,

12/14/2007 09:33 AM
$-531.50
Bought 5 IUPAR@ $1.05

Now going after $0.65

fortune8 said...

+CCJAU@1.50

Some lucky bastard got it at 1.35.

z-stock said...

if you look at the bank stocks the way i do....then, WHY are they coming in LOW / finding major support ... right before GS,BSC,and MS report earnings next week....i smell a bear.. trap.....those three are going to report ...they are in complete control of the dominion...and send the dow up 300 points....
mark my words...I've seen this before...
zee

z-stock said...

f8
what's IUPAR?
i don't have any way to look up / sort..option ticker symbols....its just easier to go to options express and look at the strike...

z-stock said...

DOW 30 stocks...there’s not too much there that can bring the DOW down...going into next week...the beaten down stuff...looks like it’s ready to spring back...and the high stuff looks like it can just go higher...
INTC, JPM, look like buy now...IBM looks bullish..HD = 2 bot..

z-stock said...

SOLD MAR PUTS...one day..130% gain....
TSO calls up 60% and counting
broke thru the all important 47.5 barrier..now the sky is the limit....this is a probable 300% gain...J50C and Jan 47.5 calls...
zee

fortune8 said...

ITRI Jan 2008 90.0000 call (OPR:IUPAR.X)

fortune8 said...

Today's Short-Squeeze Plays: ITRI

z-stock said...

JOHN
Here’s a target price page i found
I never use it, but i’m going to start keeping info on it and see if it’s any good...

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/calendar/ratings/current.asp

DIS is growing 11% a year and this site gives DIS a $39 target...I’d say thats pretty accurate...

z-stock said...

I'm going to keep posting Baby-side economics, until everyone here gets it....



Later in this series, I'll introduce the Adult- side Economics....
That's the other part of this Spending - Side Economics PLAN...

z-stock said...

F8
GOOD ARTICLE

DEC 15
Recently, the PBW fund raised its stake in Itron...(ITRI)...
....
Well well well...ITRI is a part of PBW, just as I suspected....
zee
You guys reading this post...you had better hurry up and BUY the JAN 80 / 85 / 90 ITRI calls....
short term target price = 90 to 100
I'm pretty sure ITRI won't be retesting 74, last lows...
79 = 200 day...and ITRI is managing to stay bullish,,,which is staying above the 200 day...
any dips below the 200 day...is a signal to add more to the position...not less...

z-stock said...

just you mind this..
THE ITRI JAN 90 CALL..is a potential 10X gainer...$100 up to $1000....
zee
and i give this a slightly better than 50/50 chance of happening...

z-stock said...

TK said""""
The VIX is kind of LOW?????"""
******************************
Who came up with that analysis?????
The Vix is kind of HIGH...!!!...!!!
but then i guess it comes down to
Glass is half full or half empty...!!!...!!!
Anyway....$RUT 735...
that's either the Greatest BUY signal EVER...!!!...!!!
OR...it's doom...doom...doom...
zee
or as I like to put it...
"The mother of all coin tosses"...!!!...!!!

z-stock said...

drnova911: TSO!!
zstock: might go to new yearly high
zstock: energy bill was very favorable to refineries to upgrade to ethanol blends
zstock: so now TSO has gov't backing
zstock: i'll just hold until TSO has first down day which might be never
zstock: ill be keeping my eye on VSE and AVR and PEIX
zstock: if those three start weaking
zstock: that might match TSO VLO
zstock: so that might be another sell signal for TSO

fortune8 said...

Read, watch, understand:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22263816

EMAIL ME !!! anytime