Friday, February 17, 2017

DOW 21,100 or 21,600 next

I get the sense ( from alt-right news), that Trump is about to begin the Trump 2.0 offensive. This ought to propel the Dow another 500-1,000 points higher.(within three weeks)
Dow top 5, by weight,
GS +30% eps
MMM even eps---but getting one or two more p/e
IBM eps lowered past 90 days
BA 28% growth , this year
UNH 30% growth , this year+ next year, avg 15%/year
so fundamentals, back me 100%, and then some.
close the borders, raise tariffs, cut taxes, increase US productivity (trump plan)---so far the market is betting/ funding, it all will happen. This rally might get to 24,000.
i mean,(US productivity), if we get robots (IBM US robotics division) at the local Carl's Jr. then the sky is the gosh darn limit, imo.
oh it's a 100% we are getting the robots at carl's jr. san francisco is trying something out , already.
borders are closed, (zero tolerance, shipped safely back same day), tariff's---mexican advocado's 20% tariff's---watch out , next 10 days, YUGE tax cut announcement coming---DON'T BE SHORT OVERNIGHT!!!! etc etc etc---i lost track of all the winning the market is experiencing, the winning is getting faster.
 if there's no dip, buy that!
an no, it's not all priced in, i had to raise my top call to 21,600 dow (within 3 weeks...)imo...
and to top things off, analysts are ) raising eps estimates exponentially---so 24,000 is in play. i'll keep you posted
 The US stock market got to where it is, without cheap electricity, past 16 years---and now, secretary of power/ energy--i think he's bringing back coal plants---2 cents a kwh--or maybe it's 0.5cents a kwh. i mean the market is winning winning winning, everywhere it's winning. it's gonna get sick of winning, but then it's gonna win some more...and then, that'll be just about the time you short sell. my wild a@@ guess.
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consensus numbers are close enough, now multiply p/e (guessing game), and stock buybacks(historically adds 2%/ per Q), and you have an spx yearly top! quite simple, cept for the p/e part---and guessing/estimating the wrong p/e, results in a stop loss, so go to the next p/e...or in the current climate 3 p/e'S, imo
example, pre trump rally spx 2200 was the yearly top for 2016---for 2017, hmmm...
Once the Q1 top for 2017, is in---then Q2-Q4 tops should be simple to estimate--cause i'll have a general idea of how much p/e to use.

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