here’s some puts ...and for all you longs....GOOD LUCK WITH BEN...wed afternoon....
AMTD short at 18.2/18.8 = 80/20
CENX short, up in sympathy to AL, percent match = 53, target met. 80/20 short at anything higher than $53
EFA.. short...percent match at $81... target met $81.. 80/20
Rate = double top failure..+ percent match at 42/42.8 = 80/20
XLI short...38.5 = percent match...70/30
IYJ short... percentage match.at $72 ..target nearly met....70/30...
EXP... double top...eps trend stagnant last 6 months, short at $50= 85/15...
2 days i thought the option guys would set up the LIZ 35 call price channel at 0.90 or 1.05 thru 2.70... Well now they have played their hand...The price channel will be 0.65 or 0.80 thru 2.10 thru 2.40..
BRL generic drug co.
BRL, REPORTS WED, and that’s why i am shorting it. They’ve had some issues with non expanding generic drug..product line, and the 30/50 short sell signal is at 90/10..strength.
Ggc, is chemicals, aromatic...
Ggc, is chemicals, aromatic...and the eps trend is in comlpete collapse..the strong short sell signal 30/50..( 30 degrees down on the 50 day)...as long as as i have been posting these 30/50 signals, not one has failed to bring profits..this is probably the 15th one i’ve posted... Ggc mr27..07/08.. 2.63/1.15 .... jn9 .. 06/07 3.80 / 2.94 this trade is 90/10..
DRS industrial defence contractor makes weapons sensors, aircraft wepons services , radar imaging, naval display..zero eps trend improvement last 6 mo.’s DRS might make it to $53, but i doubt it. at $53 this trade becomes 80/20.. Drs ap16 ... 3.02/3.38 ...F24 .. 3.02/3.38 ...2.87/3.30 ...n23 2.86/3.32 ..o17....2.81/3.26..jun... 3.14 / 3.56
OMX looks like a buy again...
LVS and MGM ..look good too
THIS guy really wants to short Chipoltes, really bad, and wants to do this succesfully. Well the bad news is my 100 to 1 price is quite a bit a ways away. It’s $85 and I don’t even know if CMG gets that high, this cycle.
CMG chipotes 06/..1.28>>...07/..08..1.71>>/2.14 07/08 ...rev...1.05b/1.28b...90 days ago ..07./08..1.54/1.87....Obviously the eps is on fire, but i don’t know if the evaluations can support $85 at this time....so its a coin toss...short at $81 or short at $85 where there is percent match.... Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)
i only have the 65% percent match to go by, as i can't find any other 100 to 1..short sell signals...at this time....
CMG 76.4...JUNE 80 PUT = CMGRP= 5.20...AT CMG PRICE of $81 should be able to pick it for about $2.60
CMG ..76.4...JUNE 85 PUT = CMGRQ= 9.20...AT CMG PRICE of $81..should be able to pick it up for about $5.00...downside CMG goes to $85 then should be able to pick it for ($2.60 ..is..doubtful, price on option goes that low..)..
zee
15 comments:
Hey Z,
Are you saying theres a chance LIZ 35 will be in the o.65-.8 channel before moving to 2.1? Is that what you mean?
i doubt i'll see 0.65 on liz 35 call.. if i do i'm backing in the truck...no matter what the low price is...the high price is still worth $2.00
zee
only need LIZ at $35.4 or some such..for JUNE 35 bad boy to be worth 1.40 or higher.
ps here's a historical tidbit i read today....
The blue-chip average matched an 80-year record for the longest streak. The last time the Dow rose 24 out of 27 sessions was in 1927
The problem is that participants at the May 9 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee can’t be sure what comes next. FEDERAL RESERVE officials, confronted with conflicting evidence about where the U.S. economy is headed, won’t change the 5.25 percent key interest rate at their policy-making meeting this week.
http://www.dailyreportonline.com/Editorial/News/new_singleEdit.asp?individual_SQL=5%2F8%2F2007%4013166_Public_.htm
i short sell the above...my goodness, what a pack of lies.....the economy is set to blast off the second half of the year...
z.z.z..
here’s what i read on the MAY 9 FOMC meeting....
The problem is that participants at the May 9 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee can’t be sure what comes next. FEDERAL RESERVE officials, confronted with conflicting evidence about where the U.S. economy is headed, won’t change the 5.25 percent key interest rate at their policy-making meeting this week.
http://www.dailyreportonline.com/Editorial/News/new_singleEdit.asp?individual_SQL=5%2F8%2F2007%4013166_Public_.htm
i’ll short sell the above...my goodness, what a pack of lies.....the economy is set to blast off in the second half of the year...
z.z.z..
Z, RYAAY sure looks interesting.
i saw RYAAY. It looks good but the timing couldn’t be worse. When there are 7 out of 7 people shorting the market with $50,000 orders at beannies, well that kind of puts the dampners on my long ideas...short term...
This is why i’m switching to winnable puts until Ben and fed are done wed afternoon. So in the mean time buy the BRL and GGC puts and sail into wed afternoon with at least some protection , if BEN says the wrong thing. zee
Should we sell the LIZ calls and get back in at a later time? Or just hold on? Asking because you said you are going into all puts by Wednesday.
Thanks
mads, i think we have till early wed morning to sell LIZ, this play just isn't in the cards, i guess. Ben has beannie and gosu spooked and me too. and market looks ripe for pullback...good news is LIZ up 54 cent in after hours.
i'm probably gonna try one or two puts and the rest in cash...before feds release notes.. 11am PST / 2pm EST.
exp and amtd are my favorites and BRL and GGC
on the options end just buy junes and buy strike at one higher than stock price...example BRL is $50 stock price ...buy BRL JUNE 55 put
zee
Hi Zee,
How about BRL, big jump now.
Why oh why did I sell my LIZ calls for a small loss!!!!!!!!!
mads , i sold off LIZ, too..I’m hoping i can pick up those june 35’s again, for under 0.90. and try again...
anon, BRL june 55 puts.at $5ish, went through..so have to wait till morning to see if brl down..if up (doubtful) i’ll have to buy another contract in the 3.00/3.60 range..and wait to sell contracts at retest of 50 day..
Great call on WCG, Z!
Wished I brought some of those options with you. I'll hold on to my LIZ options. Still got six weeks to go.
lol, mads, i'm with you bro, why oh why did i sell, luckily i was at break even. but i believe we might get a better entry point soon. if not get in if it starts to rise tomorrow after the fed meeting cause then it will surely go higher. i'm keeping money on the sideline for LIZ.
Yeah I have never traded options and shat a brick when I couldnt unload them :) Looking back OBVIOUSLY what I did was wrong.
lol, that must have been an experience of a life time. you have now the most valuable lesson in options trading. i still dont trade options, dont know how, gotta learn soon. i'm sure zeeman here will get me hooked on to them soon enough.
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