7/21..WSO warned on 07 eps,,,
EPS estimate ....trend down 15% from 3 months ago...was 3.40 now 2.90 ...
WSO announces earnings tues...it’s sure to tank...down to $49 which is perfect...at $49 that’s a $9 Pprice channel, which i’ve already found 3 or 4 ($9 channels) already in the past...
It’s computerized trading,,,,get used to it....
AT $49 probably on MON or TUES or WED...you must buy the WSO AUG45 call...strike has big spread...enter price at +0.90 above BID price.(appx 4.90 / 5.20 at WSO at $49)....
that price will probably execute...
X reports tues at 11am i think its 11 am...never the less X is going down $5 TO $100 where it has great support and becomes a buy at that price...or up $22 to $127.......you can play a nice strangle play on Monday...buy AUG 110 calls and 100 puts .. should be in the $2.00 / 3.50 range...
if after earnings call , X down at 100 sell the PUTS (profits) ...but do not sell the call...hold the call, better still buy another call at the lower price....cause X is going to recover quickly, up to 110 / 127....it's a takeover target .. that keeps the stock price at high support levels...on Monday buy the AUG 110 call and the 100 put...IF PUT WINS SELL IT AT X =100 AND THEN BUY THE X aug 105 CALL WITH THE X AUG 100 put PROFITS...and then sit back and watch your money grow....X gets to 110 or 115 time to sell...
7/21/07
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?GOOG
AAPL EARNINGS PLAY .BUY RIGHT BEFORE EARNINGS CALL.. YOU CAN’T LOSE...
you buy the 3.60 call and the 3.10 put.... a $10 move up the call goes up 2.70 and the put goes down 2.00... a net of $70....a $10 move down the put goes up +4.10 and the call goes down –2.00 for a gain of +$210
the stock moves $15 you make $400 minimun...
the stock moves $20 you make $900....
not bad for no risk to you at all...
downside...AAPL only moves $5...you lose $100...unless you can wheel and deal to breakeven...you’ll have 20 trading days...
At todays close of 143.75 the aug 160 call and aug 130 put would be used
GIO please read these past blogs for learning 30/50 signal
30/50 blogs.... june 30,june 25,june 20,june 15,june 8, june 5, june 4, may 31,may 30
GIO here a list of current 30/50 stocks,
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?whq,LTR,mro,vlo,fnm,bwld,mgm,dcx,amg,THE%7CB%7CB14
Ok Daniel ....FCL is a coal mining company, here’s link
http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Report/CoalReport.html
thanks Daniel...
oozze... what the heck are you holding FPL for...it already made a run...all my trades are short term, and should get immediate results....once the stock is up...start setting ½ percent stops...
DOW does not make it to 14,100...SPY does not make it to 156...
Buying VMC aug 105 call, GS aug 190 thru 220 calls ok, MLM 150 call, LEH aug 70 call, IYR aug 78 call, MSTR aug 90 call, TSO aug 52.5 call, VLO aug 70 or 75 call ok..and the list goes on and on.....buy on the dips...it’s just that kind of earnings season
how to communicate dow will not reach 14,100...earnings season is a disaster....VMC 103 target met aug 105 call 2.60..buy now...GS 207 target met aug 190 thru 220 calls ...TSO aug 52.5 call 4.10... looks good..SUN 75 target met... goog aug 550 call = 3.00 at 510 and 5.00 at 520..IYR SPG look good XHB looks good..Merger Monday...coming...FSLR new bottom is 105 target $140 short term $7/share eps for 2010= $280 stock price in 2009...
zee
Spending money on a whale watching trip ( bad spending decision) , or spending money on food relief to inner city, and homeless ( good spending decision)....DENY the guy that runs the whale watching boat. He loses the income and eventually loses the boat. Instead give the money to the guy that runs the food down to the homeless, and eventually, he gets to run the food down in a new van from a new restaurant and all that costs about as much as the boat...so it’s a zee-ism...where you spend your money, matters a lot...
Then there’s hot air balloons. I’ll explain that one at another time.
holobots4: ok this is what we have to do
holobots4: we have to figure out what time each company reports their earnings
holobots4: like example AAPL some time next week
then the day before we have to buy the cheap call and the cheap put at the same timeone contract will go down by half or more and the other contract will triple...giving a double gain overall....Had we done this with ISRG we actually would have gone up $2700 on $400 investment
zee
12 comments:
Z... thanks for the post. I'll be studying them tonight. I agree, it will be hard to catch 14.1K on the Dow now that leading stocks have begun selling off on this earnings week (BIDU and GOOG) and weakness in other giants (YHOO, CAT). If they reported better, we definitely go higher, now we have to wait and see if dip-buying rescues these leaders.
Anyway, sorry if I ask some questions you've already answered, I'm new to your site and sometimes catch your posts over at beanie's.
laterz,
Gio
thanks GIO, i need all the visitors i can get....i have a pretty unique trading system and it appears to work very well....i don't know why....but for some reason.. EPS trend and past price channels predicts the next price support on the stock very well...sometimes to within 6 cents...
zee
Nice strangle play on Apple. I'll check it out. Wish I did a strangle on ISRG.
-g
GIO, ISRG is what got me thinking...
i posted AAPL strategy, but i'm too scared to try it....
STLD reports MON AMC...the 45 call and the 50 put look good, i think it only takes a $2 move or 5% / for the spread / strangle to turn a profit of $30..a $5 move or 11%.. turns in $110 profit...if you follow steel sector...when they miss they get hammered, and vice versa..
zee
I really think your Apple strategy will work. I would probably even try a month further out and buy something slightly out the money. I'm certain it will at least move $5 either way, due to iPhone and upgrades hype.
So far, everytime I've played a strangle on ISRG, it's paid off:
http://intuitivetraders.blogspot.com/2006/04/intuitive-trade.html
However, I simply forgot ISRG reported Friday, hence, I forgot to train for that battle! Now I'm strangling myself.
Yes! i will definitely check out STLD. Right now however, I'm not sure if it's volatility is enough.
Currently, my best idea is a strangle in CROX since next month it will either be above $50 or below $40.
gee-o
gio
great blog site, thanks... it's not easy finding other blogs that trade options...i wouldn't spend time at any site unless they traded options....option people are on the ball....
http://intuitivetraders.blogspot.com/
i like intuitive's style....he's on the ball and has very many good observations.....i think i'll start leaving comments there....
CROX is hot and moves big....I keep forgeting to check in on it ...thanks...
HAL reports this week... a strangle might work on them, since the strikes are $2.50 apart....I'll do the math tomorrow, and post it...HAL will move big this time....i think probably up...I'll look at CROX too they are hot....
zee-
STLD... i was surprised that it only takes a 5% move on STLD before it becomes profitable...that'll happen way before an AAPL 8% move..so it's a much safer strangle....AAPL takes an 8% move
Hi Zee,
like reading your blog. forgive me if i am wrong, but are you saying that DOW JONES wont' go back above 14100 until we see a big correction?
what is you target for the next 2-3 months?
you also posted on beanies blog about august and october being very bad months for the mkt but then we will go much higher afterwards..how do you come up with this analysis..would like your views. thank you for your time.
sorry forgot to leave my name.
Roger
Roger , thanks for stopping by... I get my S&P 500 estimates from NBR public TV....with Paul Kangas...four years ago, the show was just deplorable...now the Public tv show is spot on accurate....LA its channel 28...google search...finds your tv channel....
I can always take their estimates and add the percentage to the last low on the DOW and come up with the markets next high....hows that for ingenuity....simple math...
I also use xle bkx xbd hbx oih spy qqqq past price channels to get an idea ballpark figure...
so 4% Q2 estimate) added to last low..dia= 135 appx.. = 140.4....and looking at GDX XLE...they are pretty stretched out...so they are supporting 140.5 and are not supporting 141...at this time...
I expect a hard pullback right after earnings season and then SUMMER rally.....a little late. Maybe...
TAKE this same info of Q3 at 6% and Q4 of 12% and its possible (80% sure) DOW at 15300 , ....now..after a 1000 point pullback ... (14,000 minus 1000 = 13000 .... add 18% = 15,300)... in DEC or JAN 08...
thats the method...
its all computerized and the programmers have no imagination..( think about it...what engineer have you met that had any imagination)....so i look for repeating patterns ( = mathematical equation) that a computer programmer might chuurn out...then i post them here as the <<<< what to trade next>>>>which by the way has approx 97% success rate...might be 90% or 88% but its high...
to whom ever...
88% means that my picks make money on 88 out of 100 trades...
sometimes i get hit by the downside and a bigger price channel...but that’s why i list the downside...
usually the first entry price is close enough to the target to get my money back if im off by 3 or 4%...(RARE)...
if you paper trade all of them ...(including) ..sometimes i post watchlists too...you’ll see after awhile this is a profitable blog site
zee
do the X STRANGLE....it only costs you $600 to try, and half of that is going to win...
Zee. sorry to bother you again.
mkt is up quite a lot this morning. s&p is very close 1555 again..do you still believe SPY wont' see 156?
Roger
Roger, any question is a challenge and i dont mind going back to my notes, and seeing if i need to change the notes ....so heres what i come up with...
Earnings season is a wash....there are not enough upside surprises to push SPY to 156 and there’s not enough earnings misses to pullback..look for sideways or climbing wall of worry trading until AUG...
zee
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