Friday, November 02, 2007

TRICKLE UP economics, should have bought gold 2001

NOV 4 2007
SHLD..can't trust the 200 day weekly...
USD is so weak, making imports really expensive, and so how can SHLD pass on any savings to YOU...they can't...they'll have to bleed you this x-mas ( just to pay their mortgage)...

i think $HUI can make it to $460. that's the next logical price channel, that's trying to set up.
HUI has a $90 price channel, that's pretty darn consistent...
so another 5% higher and its at $462..which coincidentally is CRUDE OIL target of $ $94 ish now up another 5% up or so = $100...hmmmmm

HERE'S COT but it's last week's figures, ( same as this week's figures) so i'm probably useless at using COT, for any direction AT ALL

I don’t have any technicals but i think the banks are going down some more on Monday, which means SPY is probably going down. I think what’s key are the DOW futures tonight
DIA closed with a bull candle.

bull candles never engulf.
They either add to the last close, or they retest down to the bottom of the candlestick. So they are extreme 50/50....

if the DOW futures are up, then the next candle will be white, and vice versa, if the DOW futures are down, then the next candle will be red

nov 2, 2007

DOW should go up next week, propelled by a slight recovery in the USD. That should help financial stocks. Oil prices may back off a little.
QQQQ looks like it’s going to a new yearly high, so now might be a good time to buy some beaten down tech, XLV stocks
S & P shows slightly bullish, which indicates, probably finacial stocks have bottomed short term
VIX is a short sell
So all in all next week will probably be sure and steady, as the market climbs higher against the recent wall of worry
Bonds – long
Treasuries – short
GOLD is three to one short
2k long 7k short ...change in open interest long up 300, short down 700.. so gold might be volatile to UP... i need more experience on gold...that’s why i go to KITCO
DJIA SLIGHTLT SHORT to nuetral...commercial long short tied, change in open interest commercial tied
MILK LONG 25,416 24,766
CATTLE LONG 129,114 114,812 2,425 -2,182
CANADIAN DOLLAR, change in open interest very bullish 4k long minus 1k short, commercial
MEXICAN PESO is bearish
BRITISH POUND STERLING is bearish to nuetral

USD is rebounding next week, which means DIA rebounding next week
COMMITMENTS slightly bullish... 29k long 7k short, interest change = 10 to 1 favors the bulls, non commercial is the exact opposite.. so USD slightly BULLISH...

S&P 500 STOCK INDEX bullish 459k long 407k short...changes in open interests 3.2k long added...2.4k short added = totally bullish, looks like a cup and handle breakout in S&P next week, or some such

NASDAQ-100 STOCK INDEX total bull session rally 34k long and 28 k short and open interest changed 3.2k long added and 0.7k short added thats a 4 to 1 victory ...bulls over bears

RUSSEL 2000 STOCK slightly bullish , long
NIKKEI STOCK AVERAGE long 2 to 1 , open interest is mixed signals
S&P GSCI COMMODITY = 70% oil is extreme bearish
VIX is extremely bearish 43k long and 47k short change in open interest is nearly three to one bearish...but doesn’t show any new lows, so market is probably slow and steady up ...
SILVER short 3 to 1
NO. 2 HEATING OIL is collapsing
NATURAL GAS stays in a tight channel, but very volatile
CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET = now new highs next week, slightly bearish, but trading will be volatile...comercial 150k long and 163 short, non commercial are totally bullish, i might be reading this wrong....non commercial is throwing up bull flag... but then look at WTI OIL is bearish

WTI CRUDE bearish to totally bearish 62k long 56k short but open interest changed 10 to 1 bearish minus 0.6l long and 6.4k short

GASOLINE BLENDSTOCK (RBOB) slightly bearish to extremely bearish 106 long and 168 short and open interest non commercial shorts five to one favorites



I have a great chart on XLF
And trader bean has a great chart on C

between the two charts, i just don’t see how you can miss out on profits buying either one, next week
Forget 2007 CRDN
Here’s 2008 CRDN
Ceradyne forecast sales in a range of $780 million to $1.067 billion, and earnings in a range of $5.60 to $6.65 per share. Wall Street analysts are expecting sales of $815.7 million and earnings of $5.48 per share.
BUY THE CRDN DEC 65 CALL and sell in DEC...

Somebody bought a 170,000,000 shares of QQQQ ...

I thought that was the way to get your attention
QQQQ going to 56.8 next week...It’s right there in the COT report for anyone to see

Go here to

F8’s site...and look at the bollinger bands

SPY upper bollinger is 159...COT says SPY will try for 159 but fall a little SPY makes it to 157/158

Qqqq reaches 56.8 easy, next week ... go to f8’s ( fortune8) site and see the chart for yourself


drnova2000 said...

Hey Z its Doc.

Just wanted to let you know I saw your USO put and just wanted to say I think it's going higher. Maybe for a trade it might pullback a little. However, I own TSO and I see USO heading higher than $74.35.

Good luck with the trade.

Also bought some Yahoo Nov 32.50 calls for $0.85. Hope it goes up next we so I can cash out. I got about 15K worth of calls.

fortune8 said...

Post some new charts on my blog.

Look closely at the QQQQ and QLD.

It wants to break out from the 3-4 weeks base pattern.

At the same time DXD and SDS looks topped out at the 20dma.

Anonymous said...

Now your a COT VISIONARY ? LOL, You should print your bipolar algorithims on the back of your snakeoil and sell it to your (millionaire christian) friends, maybe put a fish logo in there somewhere as well !!!!! Hows that crox workin out you visionary ? !!!!

z-stock said...

i know what i'm doing.(USO)
good looking out though
thanks, you be careful that XLE doesn't pull back 11 %, next week...

how 'bout this scenario?

rotating sector theory
money goes into finacials and money goes out of XLE


z-stock said...

COT, well i'm far last two weeks i nailed it
so maybe i can make it three weeks in a row...who knows?

I can't beleive i came out of that with a small profit, thanks so much for your concern
and fish logo? is so 1980's

fortune8 said...


If you are going to bash someone have the courage to put down an identify. Don't be cowardly about it.

If you read beanie blogs, then you know that I hate bullshitter as much as you do. I also hate clowns patting themselves on the back.

Clowns posting I made this and that money trading stock. Good for you but I think you are full of it.

I used to wager on sports. Same thing goes there. Clowns would come in posting I picked 10 out of 10 games. BS! Unless you posted your picks prior, no one believes you.

I don't care if you paper trade. But I am mentally tracking the number of mistakes you make. There are people who are momentum players and there are people who are bottom fisher. You know what I mean.

Rant completed.

Anonymous said...

Well Anon::

If you have the wisdom to publish your own stock plays, we might see what you are compairing to,,,,,,but,, if you just take one of Z's picks,,,with out any DD,,and you loose,,welll you might just be unlucky,,,that happens,,
but that is you,,,,not,,,Z..


Anonymous said...


no offense but this is what you posted last week on COT data.

COT report is NUETRAL to slightly no new LOWS
AND HE HAS a number of years doing this, and today at one of the blogs he visits (TK)
he said this week looks long on the COT...and with so much happening this week, i wouldn't doubt if somehow DIA managed to climb back to 14,100
which means QQQQ will break thru 54.3 with ease...KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE QQQQ, for a break out to new highs...
i'm slightly bullish myself
CBOT short format, using options and futures combined on all

Long us treasury
Short 2/5/10 yr
GOLD short 3 to 1 = nuetral..
DJIA = 50/50 , SO QQQQ top remains 54

CME short format, options and futures combined
CANADA $ = short 4 to 1= short canada stocks = wrong, cause canada stocks went up for the week, and last week had these exact same readings

S&P 500 stocks...slightly bullish = 51/49
NASDAQ 100 = slightly bullish 55/45
IWM russel 2k = slightly bullish 55/45
Nikkei = long


market actually went down..if you see COT charts, commercials have been net short in a significant amount since last month but gold has still been going up..commercial were net long big time before july market crash..
so i dont think this data is that useful anymore IMO.


z-stock said...

USO is next month’s price and next month is DEC 3rd, and i don’t think people will be driving much, cause they’ll be snowed in...and gas prices haven't caught up to the new oil highs, so as they creep up,
i think nervousness ( about shrinking demand for DEC gasoline ) hits the USO ...
OIL may still go up
but USO will probably disconnect and retrace

I agree with you 100%....
COT is useless...
NOV 2nd report has zero changes from last week's report
so i'm assuming it's more of the same\

last week,next week
market struggles up, only to capitulate, when QQQQ makes a slightly new high..

anon's keeping the language clean, that's all i care about.

but thanks mac, F8 i appreciate the support...

CROX has too much inventory, going into WINTER, it's slowest season...
so maybe i can get in again at 45...

fortune8 said...

People, I have read Z's blog for quite some time now. He is dead on most of the time. However, his timing is a little off. And if you want, I will even bash him for you.

He told me CROX@44 was impossible and he was wrong there. No one can be right all the time.

What I like about Z is that he provides you with ideas on what to trade next. Duh! It's in the title of his blog. You have to do your homework!

Other bloggers post what they did. For example, on Friday I bougth CROX at 44. That's just great, it closed at 47.50. What good does that do you? Is it a still a buy at 47.50. May be? Is there more risk? HELL YEAH! IF CROX drops to 42, the person who blog about it loses 2 points and you lose 5.50 points if you came in at 47.50 afterwards. CAPICE?

If you look at money flow, money has been coming into CROX on Friday. Now don't go out there and buy CROX on Monday. Take a look at the chart. Guess where the money started coming in?

Z - I posted some more charts on SPY from another blogger's perspective. SPY looks topped out.

QQQQ - on a weekly chart, 54 was the breakout. Which mean that you would already be buying it at 54. On the daily chart, the breakout is at 55.

Anonymous said...

The Hindenburg Omen, a signal developed by Jim Miekka, has received a lot of publicity lately. The signal has had some false positives, but it has also preceded every major decline. The parameters are:

NYSE new highs and new lows must both exceed 2.8% of NYSE issues traded (currently 93).

The NYSE composite must be above its level of 50 trading days earlier.

The McClellan Oscillator must be negative.

When the above conditions have been met the signal is in effect for 30 days.

On Friday all of the conditions were met. Even 10% trends (19 day EMA’s) of NYSE new highs and new lows exceeded 93 (NYSE NH 148 and NYSE NL 102). The NYSE composite is 2 days off its all time high.

Johnny3185 said...

Z, what do you think of GRMN? Looks like a 30/50 set up. It's at the 100ma, plus the eps trend is up.

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