Thursday, October 09, 2008

COF,IWM 2 sweets, XLE,XOM


I decided to do to XOM, what the market did to the Steel sector. Cut the P/E by some ridiculous amount. I picked 35% cut and now I get $60-$62 as the support.
XOM used to trade at 10X earnings, back when it was in the $40

COF, charts like this during intra-day today, made me think I might be one day too early to go 3 longs and one short overnight.
I have a short on COF, and then I'm long XLE,RIG,QQQQ ( dumb stupid longs)
XLE,RIG,QQQQ, I can recover from. COF going up? well there's always GE pre market earnings FRI.

IWM 100% odds number $463.
well those numbers rarely get tested- I think today was the capitulation day everyone was looking for, and the yearly low may have been put in today.
But keep 2% stop losses on all that you buy long, so when the relief rally does finally get here, you will still have cash.
I'm committing 15% to longs, up from 3%.

XLE is supposed to be one of the strongest SPY sectors as far as earnings. So at these prices, when the panic is over, I expect XLE can easily get to 55 and 65
AT $46-$48's there's not too much downside risk !!!

XOM, even XOM went below the regression line.
SPY broke the 950 support area-
DIA dropped 600+ points, VIX at $65, just seemed like all the right ingredients for going long overnight.

EMAIL ME !!! anytime