Friday, October 05, 2007

RVX = 21.72 / 21.95 ---SHORT THE MARKET

OCT 7, 2007
NEWCOMERS, THINK I ONLY HAVE ONE PEICE OF EVIDENCE, WHEN I GO SHOUTING SHORT THE MARKET
I ONLY PUT UP RVX, BECAUSE IT'S THE SIMPLIST TO UNDERSTAND. NOW FEAST YOUR EYES ON QQQQ TOP
DIA MAX Q3 IS 14,280
SPY MAX Q3 IS 157 / 157.5










OCT 6, 2007
QQQQ, is what to watch, this week, I have it topping at 53.6, and only moving in 0.30 cent increments,
so at that rate, it’ll take all week for RVX to get to 21.65, which means fireworks, ( very slow collapse) starts next week (Oct 15)....
and probably ends last week of Oct...
watch for any new signs from GOSU, at beannies comment section...

QQQQ 53.6= TOP

QQQQ, price action, week of 7/16 was DOWN UP DOWN UP at RSI 72..
THEN DOWN, DOWN..WEEK OF 7/23
look for OCT 8 -13 to be down up down up, in 0.30 cent increments, and then next week, POW! repeat of 7/23

When RVX SIGNALS SHORT THE MARKET AT 21.56

USE
SPY NOV 160 PUT, SPY ABOVE 157 / 157.5
IWM NOV 88 PUT

DIA nov 146/ 147 PUT. .That’s not too bad, last time, in AUG, it cost $1100 to get the proper DIA option..

10-1 SPY $11 / $14 CHANNEL = 155.. SPY 10-6-07 \10\10\14\14 =157 = 14ch = 80/20
VIX as usual, options are too pricey, and the vix will not move enough to get any option price movement...they are all delta 20 / 30 = no good...
If you have to buy VIX call options then buy the NOV 10 vix calls...


oct 5 , 2007
On another note, I figured out when to short IWM
Its when RVX , $RVX , ^RVX HITS 21.65
RVX (inverse IWM) ,
HITS 21.65, = 200day SHORT THE MARKET
THAT’S when the entire market will tank
DIA, will retest 50 day, at 13,500,
( rough patch XLF, XLE earnings season ahead, most likely),
and then it’s onward to a 1,000 to 1,500 points xmas rally .



RVX, ONCE A STOCK, INDEX, is above the 200 day, it’s very very difficult for the stock / index to go below it’s 200 day....BUY RVX AT 21.65 sell at 50 DAY = 30 ISH...BOY THAT , sure indicates a rough earnings season is coming ...thru OCT...

SPY / IVV tops around 1574 = 130 price channel match = 80% reliability


When the DOW gets to 14,280, look for a pullback to the 50 day = 13,500 ish...and after that, look for a 1000 / 1500 point xmas rally....
If you want to know the exact time the market fails,
the RVX ( = IWM reverse) will hit it’s 200 day,= 21.65


LDK, short term target $58..longer term, new yearly high
QID, just slipped below RSI 30 to RSI 29, that is a strong short sell signal
Bear Stearns, which raised Google's 2008 price target to $700.
http://www.nasdaq.com/briefing/stock_summary.stm
RIMM UBS also raised its price target to $125.

Q3, highest the DOW can possibly go is 14,280
Q3 XLE 4% contraction EPS Q3, that’s a disaster
I’M shorting XLE, NOW...

Q3, XLF 4% contraction EPS Q3, that’s a disaster

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

zee,

i dont think s&p or dow will go to 50day ma..before the correction in july, all the pullback were contained by 20day MA..so 20 day would be it..

Anonymous said...

roger

z-stock said...

Roger,
I screamed back in FEB, short the market, no one listened and they lost 100K's...
and you want to be long at RVX = 21.65,
you see something wrong with the RVX buy signal?

ZEE
Doesn't 4% contraction EPS in XLE and XLF mean anything negative to you...
when those companies start reporting, and missing, aha

and this is not me making this up, this is Thompson Financial..
THEY ARE THE GLOBAL MONOPOLY on earnings estimate...
red flag red flag
red flag red flag

jet said...

Way to go zee, hay if u are spot-on right, u should write a book on your theories! Hay I can help too (well I'm a writer part-time, programmer full-time)

When will RVX hit 21.65 u think?

fortune8 said...

I trust Z!

His timing may be a little off, but insight is pretty dead on.

I just hope he is wrong on LDK. Got burn going long and now short. If I get burn going short then I won't touch the stock again.

Anonymous said...

I'm not shorting this thing. Just gonna keep adding on dips. However, it seems very unlikely we'll get such a big reaction to the downside.

z-stock said...

Wow, thanks for the words of confidence...

If you don't think WM and JPM and UBS and BAC and C and all the other XLF, stocks that have pre-warned, then I just don't know what to tell.
When a company pre- warns, ( see list above, plus 5 to 6 a day new ones), when the actual day of earnings report comes, that stock TANKS, sometimes up to 10%...
That will bring the whole market down with them, that day...

and if that is going on all thru Q3 earnings season, you can rest assured, DOW will retest 50 day = 13,500
that's all I have to say to all perma- bulls, and their illogicalness,
zee..

Anonymous said...

z,

when rvx hits 21.65 will you let us know which stock option to buy buy buy for maximum return?

thanks

aymon

z-stock said...

OCT5
Perma- bull = equals someone who has never had a successful short sell, his entire life.
Perma-bull is incapable of calculating a target price, thus never sells any of his longs, at the top.
I on the one hand, set a $27 target for ENER. Well today, I sold my ENER, and tuned around and short sold ENER....
MONEY UP, MONEY DOWN...
This is the essence of what I want to do as an investor. Ride the wave up, turn around on a dime, and ride the wave down.
Anything, less of a goal, means I am a half- investor.

z-stock said...

HI aymon,
i'm already studying IWM PUTS and SPY puts, to see which are the best...so I'm on it...
I'll be posting at beannies and here, as i get them calculated...
Time is short, so i must hurry...
zee
The whole show could start with AA and DNA, first up to bat...Earnings
Season...

Woodshedder said...

Z- the very chart you posted shows the RVX trading beneath the 200 day moving average. I think that fact alone is enough to cast doubt on this strategy.

What is to keep it from trading beneath it again? Absolutely nothing.

Fine if you want to short the indexes to catch a little pullback. Lord knows things are looking a bit extended.

However, the economic data that is coming out is pointing towards an evironment that will likely keep this run going through the end of the year.

Knowing this, I say it is very probable the RVX trades beneath its 200 day average, one day soon.

Woodshedder said...

Another thing, the RVX is a measure of volatility. Being such, it is_not_the_inverse of the IWM.

Also, in regards to companies pre-warning, in my experience, it is the surprises that cause a huge upside or downside reaction. They very nature of a pre-warn allows investors to price-in the bad news long before the report arrives. So when the report arrives, there is typically NOT a huge downside reaction. If fact, if investors have indeed priced in the bad news, and the report has some surprise good news, the reaction may very well be to the upside.

z-stock said...

Wood shedder,
just trying to save you a couple of bucks. Good luck holding your longs starting OCT 15, when there will be a slow gradual, market contraction, down to retest 50 day, on all the major indexes.
I hope your XLF companies all make new yearly highs, ( doubtful)...then you will have succedded in making me the fool...
zee

z-stock said...

fortune8,
have you noticed on LDK, get in at $47 and get out 51 / 52?
I think $47, $43..are the entry points
zee

z-stock said...

SO
woodshedder
when is the last time you had a successful short sell?

I'll bet he doesn't have a very good short sell record....
where as mine is 32 and 2 this past 30 days...

z-stock said...

oh and fortune 8
I extended my timing on the RVX thing out to OCT 15.
I think that will fit into everyone's time frame a little better..
I just can't ignore the RSI 68's and 67's and QQQQ at 72
those RSI readings say the market still has another week of so so strength..

Woodshedder said...

Z-stock, I have bookmarked this post, and will be back to see how your prognosticatians work out.

Woodshedder said...

Also, I don't own any financials.

I just thought I'd let you in on what happens when bad news is already priced in.

fortune8 said...

Z - thanks for the info and I do agree.

I just need to be more disciplined in trading LDK versus panic buy.

Right now I am short LDK@50 and hoping for a rest of 47.

Thanks.

z-stock said...

hey woodshedder
sounds good
i'm interested in seeing how this (Q3 earnings, season) plays out as well..
for all I know the market may get ahead of itself and start putting in Q4 earnings, toward a stock's price...which is the achilles heel, of my entire position.
zee
I'm still shorting IWM at RVX = 21.65.

fortune8 said...

Z,

Got out LDK a few minutes too soon. Oh well. I think it can get to 34.

For the rest of you, Z has been right about CCJ JOYG TSO APA ... Oh and I forgot X way way way back.

Anonymous said...

zee,

what if RVX never make it to 21.65..it is already moving up. u still expect to make it 200day before mkt corrects?
thanks

roger

z-stock said...

roger
GARY says COT is bullish this week...did you see QQQQ's?
tech rally, probably keeps the market up this week...
market is overdue, for a 5% pullback, before heading into xmas rally ( 1000 or 1500 pts up)..
i'm looking at OCT 15th, as the first day, market starts to go down...
I'll be reading GARY's COT report on OCT 12, at lauristons blog, to see if i can get a handle on the situation...
zee
hey fortune, i'm glad i'm right, more than i'm wrong...
thanks, for posting for the newbies...

EMAIL ME !!! anytime